Except its separation from Chikmagalur Lok Sabha constituency, no major changes have taken place in Belthangady Assembly constituency as a result of delimitation. If one is very particular about changes, there are two other factors to identify: Increase in the number of voters; and increase in the internal strife among political parties, particularly Congress and BJP.

Revisions and re-revisions have added 6,048 names to the electoral roll; the previous number was 1,66,566. Including four sub-booths, there are a total of 169 polling booths in the constituency.

Though election fever has gripped all the political parties, a clear picture of poll scenario is yet to be obtained in Belthangady. Interestingly, BJP is in trouble by announcing its candidate, while Congress is in trouble by not announcing its candidate. The BJP’s decision of fielding former MLA Prabhakara Bangera has enraged the Hindu Jagarana Vedike former convener Mahesh Shetty Thimarody, who has declared of contesting elections as an independent candidate. The party netas are in a fix with their efforts to console the rebel, going futile.

On the other side, Congress leaders are totally confused amidst seven aspirants waiting in queue for an opportunity: former chief whip K Vasanth Bangera, former minister K Gangadhar Gowda, his son Ranjan Gowda, Block Congress Committee President K Harish Kumar, E Sundar Gowda and Lokeshwari Vinayachandra.

Mr Vasanth Bangera, who joined the Congress after his disappointment with JD(S) commanders, has ‘considered himself’ as the ‘official candidate’ of Congress and has already started canvassing. Mr Harish Kumar and Mr Gangadhar Gowda factions have opened two separate offices in the town, where Kumar’s office is considered official. Mr Gowda, having his own impression among the senior leaders, has already camped at New Delhi, measuring all the chances of getting a ticket. The other names of aspirants have just dragged the list.

Block Congress President Harish Kumar is in support of Mr Bangera. Meanwhile, Mr Bangera also has another simple but interesting calculation. The difference between Congress and JD(S) votes, secured during the previous elections, is indeed very minute. Both the parties had got around 35,000 votes each. Congress candidate Harish Kumar had stood second with 27.33 pc votes, while JD(S) candidate Bangera was next to him with 27.25 pc votes. Mr Bangera’s present calculation is that he would secure 35,000+35,000=70,000 votes, if he is given the ticket! In other words, he is still with the belief that the people who voted him as a JD(S) candidate, will not desert him. In the recently held Belthangady Town Panchayat elections, Congress had secured 7 seats out of 11, which has been analysed as Bangera’s capacity.

Mr Gangadhar Gowda has made his son Ranjan Gowda to actively involve in party programmes, and it is said, he may field Ranjan as an independent candidate, if B form is denied for himself. Thus, a possible split of Congress votes has also been indicated.

If Mr Vasanth Bangera gets Congress ticket, then Belthangady will be a war front of brothers: Bangera vs Bangera. However, as per the previous election observations, Mr Prabhakar Bangera had a bigger margin while defeating his nearest competitor Harish Kumar. Mr Bangera had secured 37.26 pc votes, while Mr Kumar’s was 27.33 per cent.

But Mr Thimarody’s threat is intriguing BJP leaders. With Mr Thimarody declaring himself as an Independent candidate, a split of Hindu votes in the constituency is also apparent. According to him, he has the support of both Hindu Jagarana Vedike and Bajrang Dal. In a recent supporters’ convention, Mr Thimarody had criticised that ‘high command culture’ had entered BJP also, adding that youngsters were being neglected. He says there are 30,000 ‘Hindu votes’ in Belthangady.

For JD(S), there are no candidates other than ZP former vice president Rajashri Hegde. However, the party has almost lost its vigour after Mr Vasanth Bangera’s exit.

Whoever might be the candidate, but they would be having a tough time in wooing people, who have suffered a lot due to problems of Naxal menace, title deeds, Akrama Sakrama, rot disease to areca, miserable roads and so on.

FACT FILE

Areas: Belthangady taluk
Voters: 1,72,614
Immediate past MLA: Mr Prabhakar Bangera