But will it be a verdict on the performance of Dharam Singh led 2-year old Congress government or H.D Kumaraswamy led JD (S) 18-month government or B S Yediyurappa led 10 days BJP government? Which government will get the credit for track record of development and governance? Will the short tenure of the 3 state governments in Karnataka confuse the voters in the state to evaluate and assess their performance or are the three governments tenures enough for a fair assessment for the voters in the state?  

The last Assembly elections in Karnataka witnessed a major shift in state politics from bi polarity to multi polarity with the rise of BJP as the single largest party in the state. With no party getting a clear-cut majority in the elections held in 2004, Karnataka witnessed the formation and breaking up of 3 coalition governments in the last four years.   Thus the transition from a bi polar to multi polar political system based on coalition government was marked with high degree of political volatility and instability in the state. The state witnessed a political spectacle of different party coalitions at regular intervals arising out of parties not following the coalition dharma, horse-trading of MLAs and complete breach of political ethics in forming government and unceremoniously walking out of it. The existing political flux and frequent change of governments in the last few years may have affected the governance of the state and the overall performance of various coalition led governments in the state. 

In this political context, it becomes imperative to assess and evaluate the satisfaction levels of the voters with the performance of the various coalition led state governments that ruled Karnataka in the last 5 years vis a vis each other. The findings of the Deccan Herald-CNN-IBN-CSDS pre poll survey indicate that the highest satisfaction level of voters was with JD (S) led H.D Kumaraswamy’s government (71 percent). In comparison, the satisfaction levels of the voters with congress led government of Dharam Singh and congress government of S M Krishna were lesser pegged at 54 and 64 percent respectively. The satisfaction of voters with the 10-day BJP led B S Yediyurappa government was the lowest at 54 percent owing mainly to the short tenure which did not gave them enough time govern and showcase their performance.  

Higher Satisfaction for Kumaraswamy’s Government  

Satisfied with which government…	Satisfied	Dissatisfied
H.D Kumaraswamy (JD (S) + BJP)	71	17
S. M Krishna’s (Congress)	64	19
Dharam Singh’s (Congress + JD (S))	54	23
B S Yediyurappa (BJP + JD (S))	44	36

Rest is No Opinion

Note: All figures are in percent 

Apart from getting a feedback from the voters on satisfaction levels with state governments performance in Karnataka, the voters were additionally asked to assess and rate the best government based on overall performance and governance issues among the 4 state governments that ruled in Karnataka in the last 5 years. The JD (S) led H.D Kumaraswamy’s government was rated the best state government with 35 percentage points by the voters in Karnataka. In comparison, the ratings of the earlier congress led government of Dharam Singh and congress government of S M Krishna were rated lower at 14 and 24 percent respectively. The 10-day BJP led B S Yediyurappa government was rated the lowest at 9 percent by the voters in the state.  Surprisingly it’s not JD (S) party voters who highly rated Kumaraswamy’s government, but it’s the BJP voters (65 percent) who rated his government as the best in Karnataka in recent times. Though H D Kumaraswamy may not have the required political astuteness and maturity of his rivals, but his style and functioning of governance appealed to the voters who rated his government as the best in last 5 years in Karnataka.  

Kumaraswamy’s scores over rivals in direct face off 

Which was the best government…	All	Congress Voter	JD (S) Voter	BJP Voter
H.D Kumaraswamy (JD (S) + BJP)	35	19	30	41
S. M Krishna’s (Congress)	24	74	7	10
Dharam Singh’s (Congress + JD (S))	14	52	27	11
B S Yediyurappa (BJP + JD (S))	9	15	12	62

Rest is No Opinion

Note: All figures are in percent 

The voters of Karnataka rated Kumaraswamy’s government best in recent times based on its overall performance at macro level, but how did it fare at the micro level in specific sectors like providing basic facilities of governance to people like condition of schools & colleges, roads, drinking water and other basic amenities? The reason for collecting and analyzing micro level data on Kumaraswamy’s government sector wise arises from the fact that it was the last government which had a substantial tenure of 18 months that could be recalled and assessed by the voters based on recency factors.  

Kumaraswamy’s Government credited with improvement on development front… 

Changes during Kumaraswamy government tenure…	Better	Worse
Public education	49	11
Condition of Roads	46	13
Drinking Water	42	15
Electricity Supply	36	17
Irrigation Facilities	36	17
Public Transport	34	19
Government Hospital	31	15

Rest is No Change

Note: All figures are in percent 

On the issue of Kumaraswamy’s government efforts in controlling price rise, its failure in controlling was felt more by voters who had a high media exposure in Karnataka. Around 38 percent voters with high media exposure said that the situation of price rise worsened during his tenure more by 3 percentage points from the aggregate assessment of voters in the state at 35 percent. Similarly urban voters (39 percent) felt the pinch of price rise more by four percentage points. On the issue of curbing corruption, 36 percent voters from Muslim community in the state said that corruption increased by six percentage points more than the aggregate figures on this issue for the state.  

…but blamed for inflation, corruption & law & order 

Changes during Kumaraswamy government tenure…	Worse	Better
Controlling Price rise	35	14
Curbing Corruption	30	17
Law and Order	23	20

Rest is No Change
Note: All figures are in percent 

A quick glance of Kumaraswamy’s government report card reveals, that compared with earlier governments the satisfaction level of voters with his government was the highest and was rated best by the people of the state in the last 5 years. The government scores highly satisfactory on parameters of governance like improving the condition of schools and college in the state, roads and in providing drinking water. Similarly a significant section of the voters assess him satisfactorily on governance indicators like supply of electricity, irrigation facilities, public transport and hospital facilities that showed improvement during his government. The only red lines in government’s report card are issues of controlling price rise and curbing corruption that deteriorated further during his short tenure. Thus overall the performance of Kumaraswamy’s government based on assessment both at the macro and micro level analysis has been fairly rated by the voters in Karnataka.  

*  Project Manager, Lokniti, Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, Delhi. 
E-mail: praveenrai@lokniti.org