Hardening crude oil and metal prices may push up inflation to 5.11 per cent for the current fiscal — higher than the Reserve Bank of India’s estimate, economic think-tank NCAER has projected.

According to NCAER quarterly review for 2007-08, the high inflationary expectation stems from surging prices of crude oil and hardening metal prices and high economic growth which it forecast at 8.53 per cent for the current fiscal.

“The role of the high economic growth (9.4 per cent in the last fiscal) exerting pressure on prices also needs to be kept in mind,” the report said, adding the overall setting for the fiscal is one of high growth and high rate of inflation.

Inflation, which has remained below 4.5 per cent for the last six weeks, stood at 4.45 per cent for the week ended July 28, against 4.36 per cent for the previous week, on the back of expensive food items like fruits, vegetables and some manufactured products.

The report said global oil prices have hardened of late and if the trend holds, the government may be forced to contemplate an upward revision in retail prices to reduce losses suffered by the oil companies.