Who will benefit - BJP or Congress - if Chief Minister H D Kumaraswamy vacates his chair?
It’s a win-win situation anyway. Both, BJP and Congress, are waiting in the wings, each party with its own game plan. According to the 19-month-old agreement between Kumaraswamy and BJP, the latter should have the right of way from October 3. BJP has made it amply clear that it is all set and ready to take over the mantle of adminstration. It has even anointed Deputy Chief Minister B S Yediyurappa as the would-be CM for two specific reasons - to remove all doubts from JD (S) supremo H D Deve Gowda's head that BJP has a dearth of suitors for the CM's job and secondly, to avoid an intra-party race for the post.
The Congress is as keen as the BJP but waiting for the opportune moment. Congress President Sonia Gandhi and her political secretary Ahmed Patel reportedly told a delegation of Congress legislators from Karnataka to trust and believe them that there will be no revival of Congress-(JD (S) ties in the State. But a senior Congress Working Committee member, who wishes to remain anonymous, told Deccan Herald there is more to read between the lines.
True, Congress was not thinking of a second innings with JD (S) as long as that party is associated with BJP. However, if the rift between JD (S)-BJP over power transfer and chief minister’s unilateral decisions on important administrative matters grows into a chasm, the Congress would not be disinclined to throw its hat into the ring. But the bottom line is, JD (S) should snap ties with BJP.
Within Congress camp, much strategic planning is on. The sudden initiation of Union Minister M V Rajashekaran as a potential chief ministerial candidate has not gone well with State Congress president Mallikarjuna Kharge’s camp followers.
Though Rajashekaran is described as “innocent” and only a pawn in Deve Gowda’s power struggle, the Kharge camp does not wish to take any chances. The “dinner diplomacy” of more than 40 Congress legislators in a City hotel, held close on the heels of Rajashekaran’s name being floated, was the first move to scuttle any plans to upset the present line-up in the State Congress.
The just-concluded Delhi darshan was also decided on that occasion. The fact that the legislators told the party bosses in Delhi that they were happy with the leadership of Kharge only goes to buttress this argument.
The pro-Kharge camp also discounts the argument that Rajashekaran is the just replacement for  Yediyurappa as both are Lingayats.
If the Lingayat community would feel let down,  if Yediyurappa or any other member of the community is denied the CM’s gaddi, so would the Dalits if the power structure in the State Congress is needlessly disturbed, is their contention.
Kharge, a Dalit and a veteran of state politics, is considered CM material and his candidature is further endorsed by noting that the State has never had a Dalit CM as yet.