Will the UPA government last its full term, considering the rising political temperature over the 123 Agreement?
The Congress is not that sure, but it is sure about one thing – that the Left, despite its strong opposition to the 123 Agreement, would not rock the boat at least till the Budget Session of Parliament in February next.
And neither would BJP push the issue beyond a point, apart from seeking to draw some political mileage, as it would not like to be seen as a group that is anti-deal in the overall scenario, the ruling party has assessed.
This conclusion was arrived at after the party think tank analysed the possible scenarios.
First and foremost, the party leadership believes that the Left, in spite of its strong objections to the deal, would never move a no-confidence motion against the government because it would never like to get labelled as the force that unsettled a “secular” government.
A senior AICC leader pointed out that the Left could at the worst downgrade its commitment to “issue-based” support to the government.  “Even if they give a letter to the President saying they are withdrawing support from the government, it would not mean anything as far as the government’s survival is concerned, unless they move a no-confidence motion in Parliament, and that is something they are least likely to do for obvious reasons,” he said.
On the other hand, if the BJP or NDA moves a no-confidence motion against the government taking the nuclear deal as the issue, the Left as well as parties like Samajwadi Party would never support it as they would not like to be seen in the same block with BJP, Congress analysts believe.
“The maximum that can happen, if the Left takes the extreme step of withdrawing support, is that Dr  Singh will lead a minority government,” sources said.