Pakistan’s exiled former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has introduced an element of uncertainty in General Pervez Musharraf’s already troubled plans to perpetuate his brand of military junta in the garb of a genuine democracy. Mr Sharif and brother Shahbaz, have announced their intention to return home from their Saudi exile ahead of Musharraf’s move to get a fresh five-year term as the country’s President as part of a deal with self-exiled former prime minister Benazir Bhutto. If indeed Mr Sharif returns ahead of the presidential election, that is bound to throw the military ruler’s plans out of gear.
The democracy legitimacy that Gen Musharraf hopes to get for perpetuating his highly unpopular regime by inducing a mainstream political leader like Ms Bhutto would in all likelihood elude the General if Mr Sharif enters the political scene. He may no longer be in a position to intimidate Mr Sharif and other political leaders opposing him since the country’s Supreme Court under reinstated Chief Justice Iftikar Mohammad Chaudhry has made it abundantly clear to him that any draconian action against political opponents would be subject to its scrutiny under the existing constitutional framework. Perhaps, the only way, the General could circumvent judicial scrutiny is by re-imposing emergency rule or martial law. But even that may be a risky course for a regime leader, who has become extremely unpopular among people — hated by the Islamists who in the past strongly aligned with Army rule and is unsure of the unstinted loyalty of the army rank-and-file.
There is nothing that Musharraf can really offer to Mr Sharif in any power-sharing arrangement as long as he courts Ms Bhutto. But Ms Bhutto would find it tough to share power with the discredited military ruler and still keep her democratic credentials intact. As Mr Sharif has said, in the prevailing political mood of Pakistan, Gen Musharraf and democracy cannot go hand-in-hand. Gen Musharraf is not even willing to shed his uniform to give some semblance of respectability to leaders like Ms Bhutto, who wouldn’t mind co-habiting with him. The advantage Gen Musharraf hoped to wrest by driving a wedge between Ms Bhutto and Mr Sharif is bound to be lost if Mr Sharif returns home to resume active politics. Indeed, the situation may prompt Ms Bhutto to rethink her readiness to share power with Gen Musharraf. She has already hinted that she might join hands with Mr Sharif if negotiations with Gen Musharraf fail.