Farmers in the suburbs of Bangalore have spent lakhs buying potato seeds. Now they are praying that the rains stop or else it will mean more money spent on fungicide.

This has been the pattern this year as unseasonly rains have wreaked havoc with the sowing and harvesting times. Scientists say these are a few of the scary fall-outs of global warming.

A study in Nature says that floods in Europe and Asia might be worse in the future due to an effect of global warming on plants, not known so far. In Asia, where climate change alone increased river flow by 16 pc, this additional effect of plants pushed the figure to 24 pc, as per the study.

Kyoto’s failure

The 1997 Kyoto Protocol asked developed nations to reduce their total emissions between 2008-2012 by 5 pc of 1990 levels. But the sad fact is that none of them achieved it. In fact, 2006 was the year with highest emissions so far!

Between 1990 and 2005, rich country emissions went up by 11 pc while the overall emissions from the growth - related energy sector increased by 15 pc.

And now, the IPCC says that unless global GHG emissions start going down by  2015 and are reduced by at least 50 pc by 2050, global temperature rise cannot be kept within two degrees Celsius. This is the tipping point after which major disasters are forecast.

The Bali summit relegated this requirement to a small footnote and left broader range of options to the nations.
As Pachauri said, we’ve already committed to 0.4 to 1.4 meters of sea-level rise even if emissions are stabilised today. For the Maldives, a one-meter rise in sea level amounts to the disappearance of the nation.
Something has to be done, and real quick. But who will do it?

If the developed giant, the US, can go on and on about its “sovereign right to pursue economic growth and energy security” how can aspiring nations like India, China or Brazil be asked to desist from growth?
It stands to reason that equity has to play a big role. Having polluted the atmosphere beyond repair for opulent lifestyles, the US now expects the developing countries to live modestly. The per capita emissions of carbon dioxide from fuel combustion in the US stands at about 20 tonne per year -- in China, it is 4 tonne and in India, 1.1 tonne.

However, it is foolish for the poor nations to refuse to do anything other than getting rich. China alone built an average of one new coal-fired power station every four days in 2006. In India, development saw carbon dioxide emissions go up by 39 pc between 1993 and 2004 -- nearly double the global rate. 

Carbon-delinked

But what everyone seems to be missing is the big picture, that growth need not be sacrificed when pursuing climate friendly initiatives. A carbon-linked economy seems tough to drop simply because that is all we have seen and know to handle. Even a technologically advanced nation like the US plans to build 159 coal-fired power plants in the next decade.

Everyone wants energy and for now, the easiest available source in plenty is coal. So can we use coal and capture the carbon? Efforts are on in the West. Post combustion capture of carbon has potential to remove and safely store up to 90 pc of damaging CO2 emissions. The capture technology can also be retro-fitted to existing coal-fired plants.

But the storage of this CO2 in geological formations such as depleted oil and gas fields raises doubts. Are we just burying the problem?

It can at best be a temporary solution to bring the carbon levels to a lower point.
The west is struggling with the infrastructure it has in place as making this carbon-neutral will mean much work and money. We in India have that advantage as we are still setting up infrastructure.

We can build our cities on better public transport, and our energy security on a mix that is available locally as also decentralised systems where possible. Instead of making promises of grid supplied power to its billion citizens, the government should promote a mix. Instead of giving incentives to car makers, it should go into public transport in an urgent mode.

Sanctions

To make sure that erring nations are brought to the table, trade can play a role. In Germany the social democrats are calling for sanctions on energy-intensive US export products if the Bush administration continues to obstruct international agreements on climate protection. It proposes levying taxes or sanctions on US products like steel and aluminum exported to Europe.

Earlier this year, in what was the largest environmental settlement so far, the US energy giant American Electric Power was made to pay $4.6 billion for installation of long-overdue pollution controls at 16 of its coal-fired power plants across the country. The new pollution controls will reduce emissions of sulfur dioxide by 79 pc and nitrogen oxides by 69 pc.

More accountability and strict sanctions alone can ensure that Bali does not become another Kyoto.