With 93 percent of the vote counted, the People Power Party (PPP) was heading for 228 seats in the 480-member parliament and said it would form a coalition government, although analysts do not see a smooth transition in a still deeply divided country.

Abrasive PPP leader Samak Sundaravej said Thaksin had phoned from exile to congratulate him on the result, a major problem for the generals whose campaign to consign Thaksin to political oblivion via the coup and corruption charges now lies in tatters.

“It is a victory for this country,” Samak told a news conference, adding that he would “certainly be prime minister”. “This country lost its freedom on September 19 last year for no good reason,” he said.

The big question is whether the army and the royalist establishment, whom the Thaksin camp says was the brains behind the bloodless putsch, will stand by and watch its arch-enemy make a comeback by proxy.  One senior PPP figure has suggested Thaksin be invited back on Feb. 14 -- St. Valentine's Day.

Although some analysts said a strong PPP showing could trigger another coup, others believe the army-appointed government is more likely to try first to stymie the PPP by disqualifying candidates for vote fraud.
The bigger the PPP win, the harder that will be.

“It depends how many red cards they have to issue," said Kevin Hewison, a Thai expert at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. "If it's 40 or 50, it may be difficult, but if it's only 10 or 20, they might be able to do it.”

Army disquiet

Samak said he did not foresee another coup since new army chief Anupong Paochinda was a "good guy" committed to keeping out of politics. But the military would prefer a government led by the Democrats, the main opposition during Thaksin's five years in power, even though most analysts say such a coalition would be weak and unlikely to last beyond a year.