Nepal is firmly on the road to becoming a republic. The government has agreed to abolish the monarchy as part of a deal to get Maoist rebels to rejoin the interim administration. The Maoists had pulled out of the government in September, vowing not to return until their demand for abolition of the monarchy was met. Under the agreement signed between the six-party ruling alliance and the Maoists, Nepal will be declared a republic after a general election is held next year and a new constituent assembly established. The government has agreed that if the king obstructs the holding of constituent assembly elections, then a two-thirds majority of the interim government could end the monarchy even before the polls. Till now, parties in the ruling alliance were of the view that voters should decide on the issue through the new assembly. Under the new agreement the question is not whether monarchy will be abolished but when. Nepal’s centuries-old monarchy will end some time next year for sure. Under the agreement, the number of seats in the constituent assembly has been increased; 60 per cent of these seats will be elected on the basis of proportional representation, 240 on first-past-the-post basis and the rest nominated by the cabinet.

The Maoists’ return to the interim government will reduce some of the political uncertainty that had gripped Nepal in recent months as fears mounted over the Maoists’ likely return to armed warfare. These fears have now been dispelled. However, several important events lie ahead and every one of these is likely to be preceded by tension and uncertainty. The political parties, the Maoists, the King and the army do not trust each together. Each will be eyeing the other with suspicion and seeking to pre-empt moves by adversaries in the coming months as Nepal prepares for crucial elections.

For Maoists, entering the election arena is a new experience fraught with risks. They could still walk out of the elections and the peace process if the electoral wind in not blowing in their favour. However, they must learn to play the game according to democratic norms and election rules. As for the monarchy, its capacity to create trouble even as it enters its dying days must not be underestimated. Nepal’s democratic forces must work together to defeat any attempt by the monarchy or the army to create trouble as the country sets out on the road to becoming a republic.