Her homecoming in October also witnessed bloody carnage in which around 200 people were killed. In fact, it was a warning signal to the yet evolving political drama in Pakistan. At that time, she pointed a finger at the establishment and it was quickly denied by the government. However, the danger of a suicide attack remained and she was critical of the Musharraf regime which did not permit her to hold a rally in November at Rawalpindi for security reasons. Of course, with the declaration of emergency the government did not want to challenge political rallies.
Benazir’s exit from politics leaves a vacuum in the Pakistan polity. In fact, it is the culmination of the Bhutto dynasty and the termination of the country’s centre-left politics. With a subtle mixture of rightist approach, Benazir had befriended some in the religious political parties without whose support political survival in Pakistan is difficult. However, its liberal constituency has remained intact. It is she who crafted the post-1990 Afghanistan policy in which the Taliban emerged as a major factor. She patronised the militant groups operating in Kashmir and promised a thousand-year-war with India. Many like to see this as the compulsion of a Pakistani Prime Minister — survival tactics in the military-steered politics of Pakistan.
With her assasination, there is the possibility that the elections scheduled for January 8 would be postponed. At the same time, the liberal constituency that the PPP had rallied, a democratic alternative to challenge the rising fundamentalism, would be left with a vacuum difficult to fill. The PPP would also now face the challenge of leadership transition. Though there is no dearth of veteran leaders in the party, it would not be easy for anyone to emerge as an effective alternative — someone who can consolidate the party and take the PPP and the Bhutto legacy forward.
Speculation is rife in Pakistan about the group involved in the ghastly attack. Even though Benazir had earlier accused the establishment of orchestrating attacks on her life, it is unlikely at this moment that the establishment would like to eliminate its democratic alibi, the person who will provide Musharraf the political oxygen to sustain legally for the next five years. Nevertheless, Benazir’s assassination would, in effect, strengthen the Army’s hold on politics and its plea that without the military, the fight against terrorism would be crippled. The latest suicide bombing will substantiate the danger that Pak is facing and validate the army’s centrality in the war on terror.
(The writer is a Research Fellow with the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi)