The search for a political route to power in Delhi has well and truly begun during 2007. At the beginning of the year, any talk of a mid-term Lok Sabha election would almost certainly have been dubbed as an exercise in political naivete, if not inviting accusations of making a partisan political statement. In normal course, the next parliamentary election is at least 16-17 months away.

The stunning year-end victory of the Narendra Modi-led BJP in Gujarat may have, however, done a favour to the ruling Congress-led United Progressive Alliance and its Left partners. Both of them almost came close to forcing a snap poll and were still reckoning early elections sometimes next year. However, as curtains come down on 2007 with the Gujarat assembly poll verdict, neither of them any longer entertains the idea of forcing early elections. It’s time to introspect and regroup, and wait until the scheduled time for the big poll battle.

Yet, the compelling political convictions, on the basis of which the UPA coalition government was formed in May 2004, have almost lost their vitality during the course of this year. It has increasingly begun to appear as if considerations of political compulsion and convenience have replaced the politics of conviction. After the prolonged UPA-Left stand-off over the Indo-US nuclear deal, there is a big question mark over the fate of the deal. Will a Congress, weakened by its poll reverses in Gujarat and earlier during the year in Uttar Pradesh, Punjab and Uttaranchal, push the deal forward against the Left’s wishes in 2008? Unless the Left reviews its stated position on the deal, the Congress will find it difficult to go ahead. Yet, putting the deal in cold storage would certainly be a huge embarrassment for the Manmohan Singh government which has, for almost two years, strained its diplomatic nerves on this single foreign policy issue.

Probably, 2008 would be a year for both the Congress and the Left to improve their line of political communication in their common interest. But the Left, which would prefer to distance itself from the Congress in the next general elections, may find it hard to cut its communication lines with the Congress in view of likely efforts by the L K Advani-led BJP to regroup the NDA.

Internal rivalries

Gujarat results notwithstanding, the BJP’s problems, on the other, are far from over. The party might have been able to finally project Advani as its leader to head the campaign. But internal rivalries continue to haunt the party. Probably, Modi’s emergence as a stronger leader in the party hierarchy will compound the problem. Advani and Modi may be able to coexist in the short-run. There is, however, a far more formidable issue that is yet not resolved. The RSS and its Parivar associated are far from enthusiastic about Advani and Modi. They made no secret of their dislike for Modi by staying away from the Gujarat campaign.

Political momentum

Much as the Gujarat victory might have the BJP the kind of political momentum that it required desperately to chalk out a roadmap for the general election campaign, it will have to contend with tough assembly elections in 2008 in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chattisgarh, the three states it currently rules. Failures in these states can deliver a blow to its morale.

Equally, the NDA it currently leads cannot pose a credible challenge to the Congress-led UPA, what with important erstwhile partners like the TDP, Indian National Lok Dal and Trinamool Congress having walked out of the alliance. The NDA has no representation in an important state like Tamil Nadu. And in UP, the party is virtually reduced to the status of Congress, with the real electoral fight getting increasingly confined to the BSP and the Samajwadi Party.

Even so, both the Congress and the BJP can have a consolation. The third front launched with much fanfare in July by the name of United National Progressive Alliance is going nowhere. They made no difference in the Presidential and Vice Presidential election as both the posts were comfortably won by the UPA nominees.

Level playing field

It would be tempting to declare Mayawati and Modi, both of whom almost single-handedly won elections in UP and Gujarat respectively defying all projections, as the leaders of the year. They might fancy playing crucial roles in the parliamentary elections. Probably, there is only one other leader who loomed large at the national level – CPM general secretary Prakash Karat. He almost appeared to be ready to snap ties with the UPA over the nuclear deal but found weighed down by developments in West Bengal and to a lesser extent in Kerala. The Left Front had never had it so bad in West Bengal in 30 years of its uninterrupted rule as has been over the last nine months of trouble over Singur and Nandigram. In a way, 2007 provided a level playing field to all leading players in the Indian political stage. But what that means to each of the players in the next big poll battle is hardly a settled issue.