The recently concluded assembly elections in Gujarat though had predictable consequences, there had been multiple aspects that had come into play to influence its outcome.
Basically it was a political fight between a national level party, the Indian National Congress and an individual, CM Narendra Modi.
It is a known fact that two major tendencies of the people of Gujarat are that of being communally sensitive and possessing natural entrepreneur instincts. Subsequently this election was broadly based on the issues of communalism and socio-economic development.
In the 2002 Gujarat elections, the delicate issue of communalism was extensively utilized by both the Congress and Modi.
This time round, the BJP leader was aware that the Congress would use the same old fashioned, emotive issue of communalism and therefore, sensing the pulse of the electorate, tactfully offered economic and social progress as an alternate to the emotionally exhausted Hindu and Muslim Gujaratis. It again worked in his favour.
What were the factors that helped CM Narendra Modi win Gujarat?
In both the 2002 and 2007 Gujarat elections Modi was clear on pursuing his poll agenda - be it communalism in last time or social development for this election. The Congress in both the elections was not sincere to the electorate.
Prior to the elections, Modi did fantastic campaigning by personally visiting 170 odd constituencies in all parts of Gujarat and whole heartedly extending support to all BJP candidates. He related better with small crowds which were hardly of 10,000-15,000 people, gave brief 10 minutes speeches and had the right political idiom to deliver his message. Congress candidates meanwhile were mostly accompanied in their campaigns by assorted non-Gujarati politicians. Why would a Marathi leader like the Maharashtra CM be acknowledged by the rural Gujaratis for instance, with his presence in their constituency?
The charisma factor is a phenomenal aspect in Indian politics. While Modi's hypnotic charisma is well known, there was no leader of caliber from the Congress to counter him on this factor. The part-time presence of Sonia Gandhi, Rahul Gandhi and PM Manmohan Singh in the election campaign was hardly effective except from drawing 10 one lac plus rallies across Gujarat.
Himself a vocal Gujarati-speaking orator and iconic leader, Modi made sure the people of Gujarat knew he would be the CM if he was elected. The Congress on the other hand declared no one for the CM post if it won the political battle. How can an invisible leader be elected was the logical perception of the electorate. Instead, the two major Congress leaders of Gujarat who have vast support bases - Mr. Bharat Solanki and former Gujarat CM Shankersinh Vagela were confined to preparing the grounds for campaign rallies of Congress President Sonia and son Rahul Gandhi. With no effective opposition, it was cakewalk for the BJP leader from the start.
Interesting factors:
Known for always coming up with innovative tactics, Modi's publicity pundits circulated an SMS saying he had always been the CM, he is presently the CM and would continue to be the CM. 'CM' is for Common Man' it read. It needs to be read that it is such type of touching campaigning that saw him through.
On the aftermath, as Chief Minister Narendra Modi takes his Oath of Office, it sees to be seen whether he will work for the economic and social well being of the 5 crore Gujaratis that he claims to represent or tends to work in the interest of the five 'crorepatis' of the major industrial houses of India.
If he pursues his 2007 poll plank of development, Modi would certainly be the poster-boy of not only Gujarat politics, but an iconic national leader to reckon.
As for the Congress, after the recent political debacles in Punjab, Uttarkhand and Uttar Pradesh, the Gujarat fiasco has seriously dented the Center's position in the forthcoming general elections next year.
Quresih Raghib
Mumbai
