M odi’s success in the Gujarat elections in 2007 is not due to arousing communal passions. Economic development and his vision for Gujarat, image of incorruptibility, peace in Gujarat versus terrorist killings in other parts of India, oratorical skills and his arousal of Gujarati pride much as NT Rama Rao appealed to Telugu pride to rout the Congress two decades back. In the present BJP leadership and RSS, Modi is the only leader with a popular base of his own and organisational skills that Vajpayee lacked. 

This Modi victory weakens the Congress. While the Left may also be politically weak in West Bengal after Nandigram, ration riots and Taslima, and in Kerala because of internal faction fights, its ability in the UPA to bully the Congress is now greater, especially with a rigid ideologue as CPI-M leader. The nuclear deal and even other reforms will be off. The Congress will ‘spin’ to distance Sonia and Rahul Gandhi from the defeat and blame the local party organization. But both have failed to attract voters. Rahul has shown that he cannot win elections, first in Uttar Pradesh and now Gujarat.

Not promoting any strong Gujarat state level leader hurt the Congress. Congress must quickly project its next Prime Ministerial candidate and identify leaders as potential Chief Ministers for each state. It must project them for the next general elections.

Indian electoral politics are revolving as in other democracies around personalities. The Congress can no longer face a 2008 general election if Karat withdraws Left support.   

The BJP has a bigger problem. The Congress, the Left and English television channels have demonized Modi in India and abroad. Today, for all his skills, Modi is unsuited to be Prime Minister. But BJP has no other mass leader. Modi after six years in Gujarat must be ready to play a national role. The BJP’s greatest challenge is quickly to project another credible Prime Ministerial candidate than Advani, not credible at 80. Modi is their best choice, administratively the best Chief Minister since independence, good organizer, orator and crowd puller, and with the courage to go his own way despite opposition RSS and other opposition.

The BJP must find ways to defang him from the venomous image that his actions have created for him, enhanced by English television media, Congress and the Left. This will not be easy. The BJP needs a national Modi promotion campaign, and organizational changes for greater party control over its Prime Minister. He has to be made acceptable to the BJP’s allies in the NDA as well as to the nation and the international community.

This may be possible. After all, the targeted killing of over 5000 Sikhs with the connivance of the ruling Congress party and government of Rajiv Gandhi has led to no punishment with little umbrage from the media. The subsequent non implementation of the Sri Krishna report on the killings of Muslims in Bombay, while convicting Muslims who led the Bombay bombings, the post Godhra killing of Muslims, targeted killing of mostly Muslim Nandigram farmers by CPI-M cadres with government backing, show the shift of every political party towards the Hindu majority.

The CPI-M that built its Muslim vote bloc even by preventing action to curb illegal Bangladeshi Muslim migration into India is now targeting mostly Muslim farmers. Even in the Gujarat elections, only Mrs Sonia Gandhi, with her “merchant of death” charge, brought up the killings of Muslims in Gujarat. In the U.P. assembly elections, only Mulayam Singh and his Samajwadi party was actively pro Muslim. They were defeated by Mayawati and the BSP.
This national trend towards majoritarianism, despite sustained targeting of the BJP and Modi, will help rehabilitate Modi for national leadership. Only the ambitions of BJP’s other leaders without mass bases might prevent this happening. 

However, Modi in reality may only be a Gujarat leader and his winning formula may not work in many other states. The BJP will then face an internal faction fight in building an alternative to him nationally. 

The RSS and its affiliates were marginalized by Modi in Gujarat. They may not favour him for national leadership since he will certainly ignore them, unlike Rajnath Singh who has no mass base. The RSS will do well to retreat to its stance before the BJP got power, of keeping away from the party except to lend its cadres to the BJP for elections. 
       
Will Modi’s authoritarian, demagogic, result oriented and Hindu view of India be good for India? Will he cooperate with the two parties led by Mayawati and Jayalalitha, both keen to lead the nation, who most likely will hold the balance of power in a future coalition? What will Modi as Prime Ministerial candidate do to India’s image abroad, economic development, and more importantly, to peace and communal harmony?
Gujarat elections have placed India at the crossroad of major political change.