A ray of hope at last in Myanmar. For the first time ever, the country’s military rulers have announced a timetable for restoration of democracy. They have said they will hold a national referendum on a new constitution in May this year and follow that up with general elections in 2010. Massive street protests in September last year and international pressure appear to have pushed the generals to make this gesture. This will be the first election since 1990, when the party backed by the military was routed. The junta refused to heed the election result and hand over power to the victorious National League for Democracy (NLD).

In the years since, the military has consolidated its control over the state and taken every possible step to snuff out the movement for democracy spearheaded by the NLD. It has made vague pledges to restore democracy but done little about it. It formed a convention of hand-picked members to write up a new constitution. That convention has completed its job now and the military is ready to hold elections. Obviously the rules of the game have made the junta confident that its hold over power will not loosen, whatever the election’s outcome.

 There is little reason to believe that Myanmar’s new constitution will be democratic or the election free and fair. The process of writing a constitution was a sham. The NLD was kept out of the drafting process. It is likely that the constitution written by a junta-approved convention would formalise and legitimise a role for the generals in any future civilian government. Details of the new constitution have not been made public but it is expected that Myanmar’s military will be made a legitimate part of Myanmar’s “democracy”. A quarter of seats in parliament are likely to be reserved for the generals as will one of the three vice-presidential posts. Reports suggest that the rules of the game would be written in a way to keep Aung San Suu Kyi, the leader of the NLD and bete noire of the generals, out of office.

Rather than reject the junta’s offer in toto, Myanmar’s pro-democracy activists need to give it a try. There is a danger that boycotting elections could further marginalise the already weakened pro-democracy parties. Civil society organisations and parties have been rendered irrelevant by four decades of military rule. These need to be revived and participation in an election, however flawed they might be, could breathe fresh life into civil society.