A number of political “semi-finals” have been lined up for 2008 as some 10 states are scheduled to go to polls during the year and for the embattled Congress party, Karnataka will be among the trickiest ones. The Congress would desperately like to wrest the initiative from the BJP before the grand final slated for 2009.

The outcome of Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh Assembly elections was a huge disappointment for the Congress and though there are some north-eastern states going to polls in the next couple of months, it is Karnataka which could set the ball rolling in its favour if the right strategy is adopted. Winning Karnataka is crucial for the coming Lok Sabha elections as well, as it has the potential to tilt the balance regarding who will rule at the Centre for the next five years.

Though the performance of the BJP ministers working in coalition with the JD(S) was nothing to write home about, the halo of “betrayal” the party carries thanks to the shenanigans of the JD(S) leaders, is perhaps its biggest asset in the coming elections. BJP leader B S Yeddyurappa, who was unseated after only a week as chief minister, will try to squease every ounce of sympathy for the party, which is now much better placed than in the 2004 elections.

But, the Congress has many aces up its sleeve this time, not the least being in a position to decide when the Assembly elections are to be held thanks to the power it wields at the Centre. Ironically, it had the same advantage last time, but botched it up by clubbing the Assembly polls with that of Lok Sabha with disastrous consequences.

Having put Governor Rameshwar Thakur in the hot seat, the Congress high command is seriously confabulating on the timing of the elections, which it wants to get right this time around. So far,  Thakur, a seasoned politician himself, has provided a low-key administration which may not be bad in itself considering the chaos that marked the last few months of the JD(S)-BJP government.

But, in an election year, it may not be enough to merely do a holding job and there are reports suggesting that the administration in several departments have gone on the “sleep mode.” This is where the Centre, using the Governor as its proxy, could become more proactive to assure the people that there are clear advantages in electing a Congress government in Karnataka.

Strong financial support for long-pending infrastructure projects and their time-bound completion would definitely boost the Congress’ prospects, besides a speedy clearance of certain emotive issues which are unnecessarily being delayed.

For instance, the renaming of Bangalore and 11 other towns and cities has been pending for a long time with absolutely no justification. If the renaming of Belgaum as Belagavi is a contentious issue because of Maharashtra’s un-called for objection, it can be set aside for the time being and the others cleared as all the processes have been completed. The Centre will also do well to call Maharashtra’s bluff on the so-called border dispute which the state has taken to the Supreme Court, but adopting dilatory tactics as apparently it has no substantive case in its favour.

The Kannadigas are also peeved at the Centre’s delay in according the “classical status” to Kannada language, though it has been proved beyond doubt that it meets all the criteria set for such a recognition. It will be a small but meaningful gesture that could win the hearts of Kannadigas.

So, when will the elections be held? The President’s rule was imposed on November 28 last year and in the normal course, the electoral process should be completed within six months so that the new Assembly can be constituted before May 28, 2008. Holding elections in February-March was a possibility, but now that has virtually been ruled out thanks to the “blunders” in the preparation of electoral rolls.  

The three Election Commissioners who visited Bangalore last week were aghast to find that there were as many as 33 lakh bogus voters and thousands of dead persons on the list. The EC has ordered a thorough revision which will be completed by March 10. Realistically, the elections are now possible only by May, if all other preparations are also completed.

But, there are straws in the wind suggesting that some Congress leaders are toying with the idea of postponing the elections until the end of the year. It would mean extending the President’s rule by another six months with the approval of Parliament. The UPA government may find willing allies to support such a move, but it may have its own repercussions.

For one, there is a limit to milking the President’s rule – as the bureaucrats can never replace the elected representatives – and for another, it will clearly expose the Congress as a weakling reluctant to face the electorate.

Those who possess the confidence of winning do not shy away from contest and the Congress needs to quickly find a Virender Sehwag to take the battle to the opposition camp.