The last 4-5 years have seen unprecedented growth in the Indian civil aviation sector and the trend is slated to continue in 2008 too. An addition to this scenario is that the current year may mark the increased role of south India in the Indian aviation map.

This has a lot to do with the opening of new international airports at Bangalore and Hyderabad. The pent-up demand of the industry — especially of the airlines — is all to set to get addressed in a matter of three months.

While most of the airlines are waiting for the two airports to open to increase their connections within the country, foreign airlines — besides the permitted  Indian ones — are eager to add direct flights to international destinations from these two capital cities.

Industry analyst R Krishnan said, “The two airports offer more landing and take offs, parking bays and cater to more traffic. The demands of all these years may be addressed”. With Chennai airport having problems in expansion, which is mired in court cases, the focus will be on these two airports.

“Most airlines were facing the problem of parking bays, which forced them not to add more flights to the two cities. Now, this issue will be taken care of”, Krishnan said, adding that with a couple of regional airlines planning to launch their services from the south, the opening of these two airports will come in handy for them.

In terms of airport development, the other regions will not see the development that the two southern airports will have. There is glimmer of hope only for Delhi but that too partially. A new runway for Delhi will become operational by mid-2008 and a domestic terminal by end-2008. These may address the teething problems to some extent but not fully. The new integrated airport would be commissioned only by 2010.

Less said the better about Mumbai which will face acute space constraints for a long time to come. Removal of slums on the encroached airport land is the only solution for the expansion of the airport but no one can say with certainty whether this issue will be addressed. Thus, airport-wise, there won’t be much change in the country apart from Bangalore and Hyderabad.

As for civil aviation policy, some changes are expected and major one among them is the number of years required for airlines to be eligible to fly abroad. At present, only those carriers which have completed five years of domestic operation and which have a minimum fleet strength of five aircraft are eligible to fly abroad but airlines are demanding that these guidelines be relaxed. The civil aviation ministry has just eased the conditions for flying to Gulf, which was the sole domain of the national carriers Indian and Air India (which have now been merged to be called Air India).

The draft policy is before a Group of Ministers, but for the last three months the panel has not met. Incidentally, the government has been making changes to the Civil Aviation Rules in the absence of a clear-cut policy. Krishnan said: “One hopes the policy is not framed in such a way, which restricts more airlines to fly abroad”.

While Jet Airways would launch its Gulf flights from January 5, the merged airline of Deccan-Kingfisher Airlines would be eagerly awaiting the outcome of the policy. However, even if it is delayed, Deccan will get the rights by August and may fly abroad using the Kingfisher brand. Kingfisher’s Vijay Mallya is focussing on connecting USA and Europe while budget carrier Deccan is keen on flying to Gulf, Saarc and Asean countries. Low cost carrier SpiceJet has already placed orders for bigger aircraft hoping it too would get permission to fly on these sectors.

According to industry consultants the Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation, domestic traffic will grow at 25-30 per cent per annum and international traffic at 15, until 2010. The domestic market size is expected to cross 60 million and international 40 million by the end of 2010.

The growth has obviously generated the need for more aircraft as almost all carriers placed orders for more planes. They have about 480 aircraft on order for delivery up to 2012, compared to about 310 of today.

Interestingly, almost 150 aircraft have been added in the last two years alone and after replacement of planes in many carriers, India’s fleet will reach about 550 by the end of 2010.

This growth has brought in itself the problem of pilots, especially of the commanders. India will require an additional 2,000 pilots by 2010, and with pilots in short supply, the carriers have already recruited over 500 foreign pilots.

While growth has been stupendous, the problems galore for the airlines. The combined losses of the airlines touched Rs 2,000 crore in 2007 and the carriers hope 2008 would see them in black. For this to happen, they want taxes on aviation turbine fuel (ATF) to be reduced as it takes away of 40 per cent of operational cost. But the airlines are not too hopeful, knowing the experience of the last few years.

Thus, there are problems to tackle and the civil aviation ministry may have to summon all its resources to tackle them, to be benefit of both the airlines and passengers.