Its time for defence-related seismic shifts in the region yet again. The dust around the Lal Masjid in Islamabad has barely settled that India is all set to raise another storm in the larger South and Central Asian region with the setting up of the first Indian army base abroad in Ayni close to Dushanbe, the Tajiki capital.

When it comes to Afghanistan, Tajikistan is the Central Asian country of more significance than the other Central Asian Republics (CAR) due to the over 1,300 kilometre border (approximately a third part of the republic’s total border length) it shares with its southern neighbour. In fact for long it is this unending porous corridor that has been a cause for concerns related to security and stability for the smaller nation with political manoeuvrings and upheavals bound to impact the immediate neighbours.

Worst fears
Its worst fears were realised with Tajikistan becoming an important alternative route for the trade in narcotics especially with stricter border controls along the Iranian borders. Besides, arms and ammunition and a flourishing trade in smuggling have only led to an increased criminalisation of an already fragile Tajiki economy and society. In the immediate aftermath of independence from the erstwhile Soviet Union it witnessed the spilling over of insurgency from across the border with arms and an exchange economy in terms of narcotics already present in plethora in the region.

And that is what raises the significance of an Indian presence close to Dushanbe as an important vantage point to watch the political activity in the region vis-à-vis both Pakistan – a move that is bound to ruffle President Pervez Musharraf’s already ruffled feathers post Operation Silence. He definitely is not in an enviable position despite the support he enjoys from his American allies. And just when one started wondering about Osama bin Laden he seems to have resurfaced. Well about time too, considering the US government just raised the price on his head – severed or intact – to $50 million. A video with him espousing fresh violence would definitely be needed to justify that. And Osama is not a man to let you down.

Threats of an al-Qaeda resurgence have been predicted by the western intelligence agencies. But making the situation stickier for Pakistan is that this time the al Qaeda seems to have found itself a fresh target in the face of the Pakistani president given the firepower he used to bring down the radicals – seen as Taliban reinforcements. That he used a man who figures on India’s list of most wanted terrorists – the Harkat ul Mujahideen’s Fazalur Rehman Khalil – has only made India’s case stronger for the Ayni base.

Time is ripe
For India the time is absolutely ripe to make up for all the ground they lost in Afghanistan with the Soviet invasion considering that relations with the country prior to that had always been cordial with an older historical trade relation existing within the region. But loyalty to the Soviet Union threw a spanner with India only losing ground consistently. Diplomatic activity with Kabul has been increasing with the most recent being India’s high-level delegation to Italy to participate in the conference on Rule of Law in Afghanistan organised by  the Italian and the Afghan Governments, in collaboration with the UN.

With Russian President Vladimir Putin already prickly over the new missile defence systems that the west intends to place in the region ostensibly to contain Iran and North Korea, he has persistently threatened a counter-retaliatory move, the latest being the threat to negate the European arms pacts. Also with President Musharraf quick to reprimand the radicals for being “poor hosts” to Pakistan’s constant friends in “good times and bad times” referring to the abduction of the Chinese nationals by Jamia Hamsa students for purportedly running brothels in the garb of acupuncture clinics, the Ayni base could well serve an outpost to monitor the Sino-Pak developments  in the region.

And, most importantly, with Afghanistan and the Central Asian region once again the theatre for significant geo-political stratagems, India’s base at Ayni announces her arrival as in the list of stake-holders in subsequent political parleys in the region.