The young workers flinched as the simulated tsunami waves crashed into their city, wavy red and green lines on a computer screen that represented vast destruction. The waves that had hit Banda Aceh in December 2004, took 1,30,000 lives. Scientists predict that Padang in Indonesia is next. As the geological rupture travels south, the danger of earthquakes and tsunamis will rise.

“Scary,” said Patra Rini Dewi,  watching the computerised waves inundate the city. She heads a private group called Kogami that educates the public about the disasters.

Kerry Sieh, a professor of geology at the California Institute of Technology, said historical records, seismic monitoring by global-positioning sensors, and a careful study of the growth patterns of corals converge in a remarkably precise prediction of a major earthquake and tsunami at Padang within the next 30 years. There will be higher death tolls, he said, as the world’s population continues to grow and people settle in ever more precarious places.

Padang’s population is likely to increase, in one sense the sooner the quake and the tsunami happens, the better, Sieh said. “If it could wait at least 10 years, it would give us a chance to make some progress in mitigating the effects.” He emphasised that evacuation routes must be widened and bridges reinforced, and an survey is needed to identify buildings strong enough to serve as safe refuges.

Patra said that her group has reached out to about 50,000 people, out of which 5,00,000 are at risk in low-lying areas. Though Padang escaped the tsunami that hit Aceh, the destruction there woke this city to the danger it faces.

Wishfully, one can, as it is possible, look at the tree-shaded streets of Padang, as Sieh does, as if looking back from the future at a city that once existed — like Banda Aceh before the 2004 tsunami — and wonder about the fates of the people on the streets. Tsunamis, he explained, occur in patterns. An earthquake rupture first sucks the water toward it, then shoots it back out like the crack of a bull whip, slamming ashore at hundreds of miles an hour, he said.

“The maximum depression will be in about 26 to 28 minutes and the first big crest will come in about 30 minutes,” he elucidated, drawing on complex computer modelling of Padang’s coastline, the ocean floor and a group of small islands off the coast. He said the waves were likely to race 1 to 2 kms inland, and in some places as far as 5 kms. “The second wave will hit in about one hour,” he said, narrating the computer’s scenario, “the third in an hour and a quarter, and then things will calm down for about an hour. And here comes that fourth wave, after about two hours,” he said. “Then waves returning from India and the Maldives will hit from four to eight hours after that. So you need to educate people to stay away for at least 12 hours.”

Jak Par, 67, who owned a snack-food stall by the beachfront lost 30 relatives in Aceh, and like many who lived nearby he has sold his small house and moved to higher ground.

Just down the beach from him, a drink seller named Rifai,  described a different risky plan. “Everything is a test from God,” he said. “We are just waiting because we haven’t been tested yet. We’ll pray to God to send the disaster someplace far from us.”
IHT