The mood in the monsoon session of the State legislature, which has followed the runaway success of Kannada film, Mungaaru Male (monsoon rains), is anything but calm and cheerful: The dark clouds and approaching thunders are everywhere, making the legislators of every political party wonder whether they will sail through the storm or whether they will be washed away.

The nervousness is most palpable in the BJP. Having cohabited with the JD(S) for the last 18 months – however uncomfortably – it is on the verge of assuming the reins of power in barely two months from now as per the “agreement” between Chief Minister H D Kumaraswamy and Deputy Chief Minister B S Yediyurappa.

But, suddenly, it is anything but certain that Mr Yediyurappa will be able to assume charge as the BJP’s first chief minister on October 3 when the transfer of power is scheduled to take effect.

As the D-Day nears, a shrewd Mr Kumaraswamy – who brought 39 MLAs with him and convinced a 79-member BJP to back him for the chief minister’s post – has gradually changed his tune from “I will stick to my promise” to “I’m keeping an open mind on the power transfer” to even hinting that many legislators want him to continue in the CM’s post!

Tasting power
At the time of secret understanding in early 2006 that unseated the Congress from government, the BJP was no doubt desperate to taste power even if it meant playing second fiddle to a junior partner. Considering that there were 40 months left for the life of this assembly, it extracted an assurance from Mr Kumaraswamy that he will relinquish office after 20 months.

Twenty months is an eternity in politics and Mr Kumaraswamy is obviously in no mood in play a “modern Bharata”. All said and done, the BJP is a political rival and indications are that the chief minister will explore all possible avenues to remain in power and strengthen his party.

Though the BJP leaders publicly maintain that the transfer of power will happen and they will lead the coalition for the reminder of its tenure, there is a growing realisation that the JD(S) will try to exploit all the chinks in its armour to thwart the BJP’s dream to head the first government in the south.

In order to prevent an impression that there were more than one claimants for chief ministership, in the last fortnight or so, all the senior leaders have closed rank behind Mr Yediyurappa, who has the backing of the central leadership as well as the RSS, the ideological head of the party. Mr Ananth Kumar, who is closest to the top leaders and who was seen as the rival power centre to Mr Yediyurappa, too has been warned against rocking the boat at this crucial juncture.

Former Union minister Mr Yashwant Sinha, who recently paid a two-day visit to the city as a central observer, reportedly feels that the JD(S) is too “devious” to be trusted and it would be better for the party to walk out of the coalition now than face humiliation later.

But, the State leaders, including the ministers, do not want to take any precipitate action as they believe that Mr Kumaraswamy will stick to his word.

Their contention is that if the JD(S) does not transfer power to Mr Yediyurappa, it will incur the wrath of the entire Lingayat community, which it can ill-afford to do so. But, Mr Deve Gowda’s words and actions on the issue of transfer of power have decidedly made them nervous.

(Tomorrow: What are JD(S)’s options?)