On June 17, 2007, a suicide bomber blew himself up inside a bus in Kabul, killing dozens of people, puncturing the hollow claims of “normalcy” in barricaded and garrisoned cities like Kabul. Interviews with the local people in Kabul and the provinces of Afghanistan, revealed that such claims had very little meaning in an environment of pervasive fear and insecurity, the large presence of the international security forces notwithstanding.

Any analysis of the escalating violence in Afghanistan caused by the resurgent Taliban and sources of funding for such insurgency boils down to narcotic-trafficking. The huge array of Taliban affiliated groups – warlords, narcotic traffickers, organised criminals, involved in the drug trade form an “arc of regional conflict formation” with cross border networks enabling easy flow of drugs from Afghanistan into Central Asia, Iran, Pakistan, China and even India.

Narcotic hub
While around 92 per cent of the world’s heroin comes from Afghanistan, the UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) sources indicate that in 2006, Afghanistan produced an equivalent of 6,100 tonnes of opium, contributing to about 92 percent of the world total. The production levels rose to almost 60 per cent to reach a record harvest of 165,000 hectares. And if preliminary survey in February 2007 is any indication, the current year does not portend too well for the country.

While the drug menace looms large in Afghanistan, the counter-productive narcotic policies of the US and its NATO allies are deepening fissures and reinforcing instability in the southern provinces.

The insurgency wracked southern provinces of Afghanistan. For instance, Helmand, today has emerged as a significant centre for heroin processing and trafficking, and is becoming the world’s biggest drug supplier.

In an interview with this author, minister of counter narcotics, Eng Habibullah Qaderi (who has since resigned) emphasised on the need for a unified and well-coordinated strategy with help from the international community as a way out of this quandary.

It might be easier said than done. Opium trade in Afghanistan is worth about $3.1 billion, contributes to about a third of Afghanistan’s total economy. Some of the biggest drug barons are members of the national and provincial governments. The law enforcement arm of the Afghan government is involved at various levels to facilitate the lucrative trade.

Ambitious plan
Hamid Karzai government’s ambitious plan for fighting the opium trade, based on “eight pillars,” including poppy eradication, building the justice system, and funding alternative development programmes, has not taken off. While the Americans are trying to push rigid eradication efforts like aerial spraying, the Europeans are clearly opposed to forceful eradication for fear of losing the “hearts and mind” campaign.

In Helmand province, rural communities, in addition to turning anti-government, look towards the insurgents offer for “protection” of poppy crops. Travel around Nangarhar province, highlighted the absence of alternative development projects. Thus, a string of broken promises have generated alienation and contempt within rural communities, particularly in the south, further weakening the link with the Karzai government.

While the international community seems to be floundering in evolving effective counter-narcotics policy in Afghanistan, the sources of funding the insurgent movement continues to remain intact with cross border support. Small incremental steps involving a judicious mix of eradication, development, and building on a sustainable economic and agricultural base might provide a way out of the imbroglio. However, these measures require building of a stable Afghan government backed by strong international commitment.

(The writer is associate fellow, Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi)