The second election victory by Turkey’s Justice and Development (AK) Party is a turning point in the modern Turkish state, founded in 1923 by arch secularist Mustafa Kemal Ataturk. After 84 years of aggressive secularism, which did not suit the largely traditional, conservative devout Muslims, Turkey is on the way to coming to terms with the majority of its 73 million citizens.

The AK Party, an offshoot of the fundamentalist Welfare Party, which was ousted from power and banned in 1998, is a moderate, progressive Western-looking grouping which represents the rising middle and working classes as well as rural Turks. These groups have been alienated by the failure of the Westernised urban elite, secular parties, and armed forces to deliver economic and social development and good governance. Writing in the daily Zaman on the morning after the poll, Shahin Alpay observed, “With this election the AK Party, as a reformist party in pursuit of an open society and competitive economy, has consolidated its position as the dominant party in the Turkish system”.

Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan summed up his triumph by proclaiming that his party represents the “social centre”. Since this was the first time a ruling party has managed to increase its support in 52 years, the result amounts to a major political upheaval. The underclasses have spoken through the ballot box and it behooves the secular elite and army to listen.

Since its first election triumph in 2002, the AK Party has initiated major economic, political and legal reforms. Although change has long been required on the domestic front, many of the reforms have been carried out to meet the European Union’s stiff requirements for entry. These reforms have transformed the deteriorating Turkish economy into what Turks call the “Anatolian tiger” with an annual growth rate of 7 per cent, reduced unemployment, doubled per capita income and energised entrepreneurs in provincial towns. Unfortunate attempts by the AK Party to criminalise adultery and lift the prohibition on women wearing headscarves, seen as “Islamic dress”, set red lights flashing in the eyes of secularists who argue that the party intends to “Islamicise” Turkey. The real reason for the party’s success, argued Alpay, is that its secular rivals “have been tried many times” and “have been proven incompetent” and lacking in credibility.

In a bid to counter this accusation and reassure secular voters, the AK Party recruited some 20 liberals, including women without headscarves. They joined the party because they feel the real danger to the country does not come from moderates with a religious background but from the fossilised secular elite empowered by Ataturk and the army, which has staged four coups since the republic was established. In April the generals warned the government that it would  take action once again if the AK Party put forward the candidacy of Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul for the presidency. One of the new parliament’s first issues when it convenes shortly will be to choose a new president to replace Ahmet Necdet Sezer whose term expired in mid-May. Erdogan may suggest a consensus candidate in order to avoid an early clash of wills with the secularists and the military.

In spite of his landslide victory, a personal achievement for Erdogan, and its take of 47 per cent votes, the AK Party will have fewer seats in this parliament, 340 in the 550 member assembly, than in the last. This means that Erdogan will have to make deals with the Republican People’s Party, with 111 seats, or the Nationalist Movement, with 71, or with smaller groups, including the Kurds who won 23 seats, entering parliament for the first time since 1994.

Erdogan is certain to continue accession negotiations with the EU, Turkey’s candidacy being a major achievement of his first term in office.

He is in a stronger position to prevent the Turkish military from invading northern Iraq in order to crack down on Kurdish guerrillas based there and to  launch a dialogue with Turkey’s Kurdish separatists. He also intends to reach out to Arab neighbours and Iran instead of restricting its relations to the West.

It is ironic that the AK Party’s victory was hailed in the West because this development is likely to encourage other West Asian parties with a Muslim religious foundation to demand recognition and the right to stand and be elected in countries like Egypt, Tunisia, Algeria.