Janata Dal (S) supremo H D Deve Gowda is a great believer in astrologers. Soon after the 1996 Lok Sabha elections which delivered a split verdict, he went to a famous astrologer at Namakkal in Tamil Nadu who predicted that Mr Gowda was destined for “greater responsibilites.” As it happened, within a fortnight Mr Gowda became the prime minister under most unexpected circumstances. One of the first things he did after assuming charge was to visit his Namakkal astrologer and profusely thank him.

Mr Gowda is known to consult more than one astrologer and as the deadline for the transfer of chief ministership to the BJP in Karnataka nears, he is bound to seek divine help in deciding the course of action. But, those who know Mr Gowda from close quarters believe astrological intervention will only be superimposed on his uncanny political calculations.

When Mr H D Kumaraswamy walked out of JD(S) with 39 MLAs in January 2006 to form an alternative government with the BJP, Mr Gowda was extremely unhappy as it was against the secular platform on which he had built the party. It damaged his own political credentials, but there was no way he could disown his son, who he later realised had “saved” the party. And  within three months, Mr Kumaraswamy won him over with “impressive” performance as the chief minister.

Wielding power
After sulking for some time, Mr Gowda was back at the helm of both the party and the government run by novice ministers. It is said that Mr Gowda and his family members - particularly his two elder sons, Mr Balakrishne Gowda and Minister H D Revanna - wield so much of power and influence that many important files are routinely routed through them, much to the chagrin of several ministers, both from the JD(S) and the BJP. Mr Gowda’s apprehension is that once the BJP assumes power, not only will his family’s power and influence over government affairs diminish, but under Mr Yediyurappa, the BJP may consolidate its position in State politics to the detriment of the JD(S).

As finance minister in the present government, by liberally giving donations to over a hundred caste and religion-based institutions and organisations, Mr Yediyurappa has already shown an uncanny ability at playing vote-bank politics. If he were to become the supreme boss, the fear is that he may go to any length to promote BJP’s prospects in the next election.

Mr Gowda has already disabused his son from frequently talking about resigning before the term ends. Mr Kumaraswamy too has started believing that there is a groundswell of support for his continuance as chief minister. He is in touch with about 30 BJP MLAs who he expects will rather back him than accept Mr Yediyurappa as chief minister.

Political future
But, in reality, there are no more than four BJP MLAs who are solidly behind Mr Kumaraswamy and who are likely to contest the next election as JD(S) candidates. The others are unlikely to risk their political future as they will face disqualification if they cannot muster two-thirds support to break away from the BJP. Many of the “potential” defectors have been weaned back with the promise of good portfolios when the BJP forms the government.
If people close to Mr Gowda are to be believed, the JD(S) supremo has already made up his mind not to let a BJP man become the chief minister of Karnataka. His party’s decision to stay away from supporting Mr Shekhawat in the presidential election was an indication of his intention to distance himself from the BJP. He has opened channels of communication with the Congress for renewal of their association and whether it will fructify remains to be seen.

(Tomorrow: Will Congress take the bait?)