With the Delimitation Commission headed by Justice Kuldip Singh issuing its final orders on the delimitation process in Karnataka – as part of an all-India exercise – the “demon of delimitation” which the politicians dreaded for so long is almost upon them. As almost 96 per cent of the constituencies will undergo a change, both demographically and geographically, the  entrenched politicians have no option but to rework their strategies when the next Assembly and Lok Sabha elections are held.

The exercise undertaken after more than three decades will usher in three important changes: The number of urban constituencies will go up at the cost of rural segments thanks to greater urbanisation. The SCs and STs will gain in proportion to their increased population. And massive distortion in the size of the electorate from one constituency to the other which had crept in over the years, will be removed at one go with the redrawing of boundaries.

As any change is always painful, the Commission has predictably received a lot of criticism, especially from politicians who are going to be hurt. But, the Commission’s transparent and non-partisan approach within the parameters set by the Constitution, will possibly ensure that there will be no escape from implementing the report.

As far as Karnataka is concerned, the Lingayats and Vokkaligas – with 16 and 9 per cent of the population respectively – have played a dominant role in politics as a majority of chief ministers and ministers have been from these two communities, whichever party was in power. This situation is likely to change with the greater empowerment of the SCs and STs.

As against 18 per cent earlier, their combined population has gone up to 24 per cent and proportionately the number of reserved seats will go up from 33 to 36 for SCs and from two to 15 to the STs in the Assembly. The number of Lok Sabha seats for these two groups will also increase by three.

It effectively means that roughly one fourth of the Assembly – between 50 and 55 seats – will have representation from the oppressed classes, who have never had a chief minister in the last six decades and will rightfully press for one in the near future. Who will herald the “Mayajaal” in Karnataka remains to be seen.
After the draft notification was issued, the Commission acceded to the demand for scattering the SC constituencies across the revenue sub-divisions, but a majority of ST seats – nine out of 15 – remains in the two districts of Raichur and Bellary, causing some heartburns. But, the Commission’s defence is that it had to strictly go by the Constituonal provision in this regard.

Another criticism relates to not changing the reserved status of at least 10 constituencies, including Mulbagal, KGF, Pavagada, Mudigere, Malavalli and Anekal, which could perhaps have been relieved after carrying the “burden” for the last 50 years. It was suggested that Srinivasapura, which is close to Mulbagal and has almost the same percentage of SC population as the latter, could have been reserved; Similarly, there was a plea that Hassan Lok Sabha seat, with around 24 per cent SC population, could have replaced Chamarajanagar in the reserved category.

JD(S) supremo Deve Gowda who has represented Hassan a number of times and almost considers it a family fiefdom, would have heaved a sigh of relief that Hassan was not reserved despite the best efforts of his political rivals. But, he would be unhappy that with the redrawing of boundaries, the profile of Hassan has undergone a sea-change, with the Vokkaligas no longer being the dominant community.

Even as many seasoned politicians like Mallikarjun Kharge, M P Prakash, R L Jalappa and others are set to “lose” their constituencies, the delimitation exercise is bound to throw up some interesting battles. For instance, with Sathanur being merged with Kanakapura and parts of Kanakapura becoming part of Ramanagara, D K Shivakumar, P G R Sindhia and Chief Minister H D Kumaraswamy will slug it out to get elected to the Assembly.
One of the more valid criticisms against delimitation is that it lays too much emphasis on the distribution of population, giving less representation to rural areas. The fear is that the backward regions identified by the Nanjundappa Commission for more sustained development will henceforth actually get less attention.
On the contrary, Bangalore city is likely to gain political importance as the number of seats in and around Bangalore will jump from 16 to 28, making the city MLAs more powerful than ever. They, along with legislators from the old Mysore region could play a critical role in the selection of the chief minister.
 As the caste factor has always dominated the political process in Karnataka – from the selection of candidates to the representation in the ministry – all political parties will be taking out their calculators to study the permutations and combinations in each constituency which will offer the best results. One thing is for certain: The next round of elections to the Assembly and the Lok Sabha will be like none before.