The average shelf life of past military coup leaders in Pakistan has been around ten years. That is not a very good fact of history for that country’s current military leader General Pervez Musharraf. Last week’s bid on his life by unknown persons using an anti-aircraft gun and a machine gun to shoot at his plane should be extremely worrisome to President Musharraf. The General once again survived the attempt on his life, but it might very well be a clear signal that Gen Musharraf could be reaching the end of his tenure as the country’s latest military ruler. It is to be seen, however, if the General realises the seriousness of the situation he confronts at present. He is losing his allies one-by-one.
Gen Musharraf never cared to keep on his side mainstream democratic political parties. He rose and consolidated his position as the military ruler by banishing leading political leaders from the country. Those fringe political leaders who made common cause with him initially after his coup in October, 1999 were junked not long after the military takeover. The media and civil society that had a lot of expectation from him have since turned against him in the face of his regime’s crude attempts to curb media freedom. He is at war with the country’s highest judiciary, which ironically had provided a blanket three-year legitimacy to his coup.
Of course, the coup leaders have derived their strength and sustenance from the rank and file of the Pakistani Army and the United States. The last military ruler General Zia-ul-Haq had added a third pillar of support — fundamentalist religious constituency. Playing both the US and the religious fundamentalism cards has become difficult for Gen Musharraf in the wake of the 9/11 terrorist attacks in the US in 2001. That it was difficult to retain the loyalty of the religious extremists at home while simultaneously pledging support to Washington’s war on terrorism was loud and clear from the two earlier bids on his life. The continuing Lal Masjid standoff in Islamabad could very well be reflective of a complete breakdown of communication channels between Gen Musharraf and the religious extremist constituency. That leaves Gen Musharraf with only with his Army for support. Should the Army rank and file too start concluding that he has become a liability, Gen Musharraf’s isolation at home will be complete, spelling the end of the road for him.