Musharraf regime is propagating that the movement launched by the lawyers against the President’s ham-handed attempt at forcing Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry to resign is now losing momentum; it thinks that it would only be a matter of time before it peters out. But that is not what an ordinary person perceives. The movement is as strong today after nearly ten weeks as it was immediately after the gross March 9 faux pas by Musharraf.
The latest evidence came on Saturday, May 26, when Supreme Court Bar Council held a seminar in the Supreme Court building where some of the defending lawyers of the CJP spoke as did the CJP himself. Insofar as the CJP is concerned, he made just one major point that can be stretched to call it political: absolute power corrupts and separation of powers is essential to democracy among other similar subjects like independence of judiciary. He was mainly apolitical.
But the other lawyers spoke what was pure politics though also law: The supreme law is what the people’s needs are. Vast majority of the country’s lawyers appeared to be there. The number of ordinary persons was also reasonably large. They obviously could not be accommodated in the Court building. They had to be provided for with screens and loudspeakers to hear and it was a lively crowd of commoners that was active constantly shouting purely political slogans: “Go Musharraf, go” and various others. The kind of emotional outbursts that the people showed is not an everyday affair; it happens but rarely.
Would this movement for change fructify? The basis of the regime and its strength would seem to make it a colossus. Way back in 1960s, Field Marshal Ayub Khan had assembled a coalition of interests in the society in his support: all the economic and social elites were in it: feudals, religious divines and tribal chiefs, the new industrialists, bankers and rich and successful professionals. It was a formidable array of interests that has sustained many a military rule.
Over the years the military has expanded out into the economy and it now virtually controls 24 per cent of the total industrial sector. And is not entirely absent from agriculture either, owning large tracts of land for the institution and much more for the retired military officers and men. Army’s tentacles in various economic spheres make it a formidable force, having assembled a coalition of economic interests behind it, it has ruled Pakistan during most of its life as a nominally independent country, half the time directly and half the time from behind the scenes. It still looks like a colossus. Can it be moved out of the way?
“Not so easily” is the answer. While nothing is impossible for an angry and aroused people, to arouse the people to a pitch where they would effect what is in fact a revolution is not an everyday affair. It can’t be ordered by someone. It happens when it happens. The question is: Is it the time when it may happen?
It was said half jokingly that Pakistan regime rests on three pillars: Allah, Army and America. Allah meant the support of the religious parties and Jihadist groups because the Army had created some of them and nurtured many. Army itself is a powerful institution that has been in control of government for most of the past 50 years. Insofar as America is concerned, it is no news to say that America is one of the strongest stakeholders in the country.
For over long stretches of time, Pakistan has been not only an ally of America but has also been receiving a considerable amount of aid from it. America has set up myriad linkages with this Army that has thrown tentacles in most parts of the economy and society, having assembled a formidable coalition of interests. The influence of America in the Army is a big factor. At some stage, when the Americans do want a change, it so happens that Pakistan military does produce a change in the government. It is usually for the benefit of Americans. There has been no government change in Pakistan in which the Americans were not involved in one indirect way or the other.
The question is: Where do the Americans stand vis-à-vis this movement? They are quiet. They have neither supported it, nor approved it. But they have been saying things that are saddening to Musharraf personally. While the Bush Administration continues to stand by him, it is the American media that is going to town of him: The serious American media report that with the passage of everyday Musharraf is losing authority. This American assessment is a damning thing and becomes a factor in Army's own calculations.
The taste of the pudding is however in eating; we shall soon know whether the American thunder has any rain in it or is merely wind. Needless to say, Pakistan has travelled this road many times before. The 1990s period is said to be the period of civilian governments. But they were puppets in the hands of the Army Chief of the day. Now that the actual ruler is from the Army and is its chief, the real test of the Army's behaviour should soon be visible.
If the Army stands by Musharraf and the movement loses steam without resulting in large-scale chaos, the President will go through with his own election from the outgoing assemblies and will hold an election that his Army would “manage” as during the previous five elections. Other possibilities are mind boggling. If the movement cannot be stopped and continues to grow, it will become a popular revolution. But if the Army can crush or somehow divert the movement, it can save its rule. Which will it be is hard to say.
