If reports that the recent immobilisation of Estonia’s digital infrastructure was indeed the result of a cyber attack by another country, then this tiny Baltic state – a former republic of the Soviet Union - has the unfortunate distinction of being the world’s first victim of cyber war. Over the past month, websites of Estonia’s government and financial institutions, e-mail servers and Internet Service Providers have come under massive and co-ordinated cyber attack. The attacks in the virtual world coincided with a downturn in Estonia’s relations with Russia. Within hours of the relocation of a Soviet-era war memorial out of the centre of the Estonian capital, Tallinn - an event that sparked protests in Moscow and by Estonia’s Russian community – the assault on Estonia’s digital infrastructure began. This triggered allegations that Russia had launched a cyber-war on Estonia. That the attacks peaked on May 9  - observed annually in Russia as Victory Day – further fuelled such suspicions. Although Russia firmly rejected these allegations right from the start, security analysts in the United States and Europe were quick to accuse Moscow of waging war on Estonia. Some even called for counter-strikes on Russia.
Experts have now ruled out a Russian government role in the attack. But the events over the past month provide pointers to what lies ahead in the event of future cyber wars between countries. The cyber attacks on Estonia might not have killed its people or damaged its houses and bridges. But it has dealt a stunning blow to its economy. The full impact of the waves of attacks on its economy is yet to unfold but preliminary estimates indicate that the losses could run into billions of dollars.
It is not just the impact of cyber attacks that is scary. What is truly worrying is how little it takes to spark allegations that a cyber war is being waged. Since it is hard to locate and identify the perpetrators of a cyber attack, rumours and speculation heighten uncertainty, fear and tension. The threat of cyber wars has implications for the international community. It is a pity therefore that NATO is making the problem out to be one that its members face from other countries. Steps to prevent the threat require a co-operative approach from all countries in the world.