With political parties preparing for the battle royale to the Karnataka Assembly, the question uppermost in everyone’s mind is — will the election be held in May or later this year? The Central Election Commission (CEC), going by the rule book and legal binding, is in favour of a May poll so that an elected government is in place when the six months of President’s rule — imposed on the state — ends. The Congress party is trying hard to push the election to October and beyond. The probable contestants are divided: those whose tried and tested constituencies are intact prefer early election, while those who have lost their home turf due to the fresh delimitation process, and the first-timers, want more time to be poll-ready.

The CEC verdict may be out any time, but one thing is clear. The delimitation exercise will ensure a new ball game for all the contending parties. That’s why non-Congress parties were waiting to match their strategy with that of the Congress and once former chief minister S M Krishna was actually relieved of his gubernatorial assignment, every rival party thought that the poll gong had been sounded. Even as Krishna’s ex-Belgaum yatra to return to the state hit media headlines, Janata Dal (Secular) supremo H D Deve Gowda’s son and poll mascot H D Kumaraswamy post haste set out on his “Jaitra yatra” covering 21 districts. But alas! Krishna called off his yatra, mooted by ‘friends’, and has decided to come down to Bangalore and chart out his plans in consultation with the Karnataka Pradesh Congress led by Mallikarjuna Kharge.

“I need an update on so many fronts and also to assess the developments of the last three years as my perception is based on the selective newspapers I was reading,” explains Krishna, betraying no urgency while lending credence to the prevailing notion that the poll may be put off.

Grapevine, however, has it that Krishna had no choice but to cancel his yatra, just as he had no choice but to mouth the Maharashtra government’s defence that Belgaum was an integral part of that state, while delivering the budget speech as the governor.

Now that he is surely set homeward, Krishna says the Congress party is ready for elections and will work to win a clear mandate in favour of the development agenda pursued by his government earlier. Social justice to every neglected sector of society and secularism will be the twin poll planks, he adds.

But the going may not be as easy as he made it sound. Krishna’s supersession over other senior party colleagues may not be new but care needs to be taken to ensure that two or more power centres do not emerge, leaving workers confused and purposes defeated. When the late Devaraj Urs was named the party convenor in the past, seniors like K Hanumanthaiah, a former chief minister, worked under him without any rancour. But again, when R Gundu Rao lost the 1983 election, it was intra-party disunity which cost him dearly.

Apart from Kharge and Siddaramaiah being natural contenders for the chief minister’s post, former chief minister M Veerappa Moily has his pockets of support which Krishna needs to work on.

That apart, the caste calculations attributed to the Congress in finalising its leadership lineup is also nothing new, as such configuration of leaders existed even in the past. In the present circumstances, the Congress neither enjoys a monopoly over the dominant Vokkaliga and Lingayat vote banks, nor does it solely control the Dalit, Muslim and backward class segments anymore.

The Samajwadi Party, led by S Bangarappa who has his own following within the Congress and voters in general, and the Bahujan Samaj Party under P G R Sindhia have emerged stronger when compared to the 2004 election. Dalits may have been a little averse to Mulayam Singh in UP, but they have no such feeling towards Bangarappa.

The delimitation exercise itself will necessitate some fresh match making between candidates and constituencies. However, Krishna had proved successful on that score in 2004 when he fielded some newcomers to the party like K Srinivas Gowda, N Krishna Byre Gowda and S Ramesh Kumar, all of whom won.

Krishna may succeed on two fronts — wresting some urban seats from the BJP because of his urban and pro-IT image, and making inroads into the JD(S) rural base by using Finance Minister P Chidambaram’s pro-farmer, pro-rural employment budget proposals as a trump card.

The BJP, which will surely feel the absence of the Bangarappa factor, which helped it win at least 25 seats last time, may make some gains by playing the Hindutva card in the wake of the terror strikes across the country and growing sense of insecurity among citizens.

The JD(S) appears set for the biggest struggle ahead as the party does not even have enough leaders to campaign. Will this election spell finis for Deve Gowda remains to be seen.

All said and done, this election may well prove that might alone does not always convert into right.