Today, as the world watches the fifth anniversary of the invasion and occupation of Iraq, the US remains mired in a war it longs to end but cannot. Withdrawing its troops would jeopardise the stability of strategic, oil-rich West Asia. While Hillary Clinton and Barak Obama, candidates contending for the Democratic Party's presidential nomination, say they will, if elected, pull out US forces, John McCain, the Republican candidate, argues that US soldiers may have to stay 100 years to stabilise Iraq.
McCain may have exaggerated. But he is right in saying that Iraq, now a failed state, needs external assistance to impose security and order, suppress divisive ethnic and sectarian forces, reconstruct infrastructure, and create an effective system of governance.
Five years after US and British forces invaded, Iraqis remain at war with the occupiers and each other. Although attacks on US and allied Iraqi forces have fallen from 180 to 60 a day over the eight months, al-Qaeda and the Iraqi resistance continue to kill and maim. Sunnis fight Shias, Shia factions fight each other, and Arabs fight Kurds. Criminals kidnap and kill.
The death rate for Iraqi civilians has fallen from 100 a day, to 40-50-100 on particularly bloody days. Estimates of the violent death toll range from 1,51,000 to 6,00,000 during the first three years to 1.5 million through August 2007. A US media survey showed that 53 per cent of Iraqis have been physically harmed by the war.
Furthermore 4.5-4.7 million Iraqis have been displaced since 2003, 2.2-2.4 million internally; 1.5 million have fled to Syria, 750,000 to Jordan, and the remainder to Egypt, Lebanon, the UAE, and Yemen. Many of the displaced were driven by sectarian militias from their homes in mixed urban neighbourhoods, towns or villages and cannot return because their houses have been taken over by members of other communities or destroyed.
Iraqis lack electricity, clean water, and efficient sewage disposal. Unemployment is 50-70 per cent and inflation 70 per cent. The public health system has collapsed. Hospitals and clinics, short of equipment and medicines, cannot cope with large numbers of wounded and ailing civilians. Most Iraqis have experienced psychological trauma with children being most severely affected. The education system has been devastated by the flight of teachers and professors and the lack of facilities, books, and equipment.
University campuses have fallen under the control of Shia fundamentalist factions which impose social restrictions on students, interfere in course work and intimidate instructors. Sixty-four per cent of women surveyed said violence against them had increased, 76 per cent said girls were prevented from attending school, 68.3 per cent said there are few jobs for women and 70.5 per cent said their families did not earn enough to pay for basic necessities. Half a million widows and their families depend on relatives or suffer extreme poverty.
West Asia has been deeply shaken by US actions in Iraq. Anti-US sentiment, already high due to Washington's uncritical support for Israel, has risen dramatically. Leaders traditionally allied to the US are under increasing pressure to break with Washington. Since Muslim fundamentalist movements have gained at the expense of secular and monarchical rulers, democratisation and reform have been curtailed in Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Syria.
Since the US installed in power in Iraq, two Shia and two Kurdish parties with close ties to Tehran, Iran now plays a key role in Iraqi affairs. This has strengthened Iran’s regional position and compelled the Saudis and Gulf emirs to pursue rapprochement with Tehran, regarded by the US as its main regional antagonist. The rise of fundamentalist Shias in Iraq has created tensions between Sunnis and Shias in Lebanon, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia.
The influx of Iraqi refugees cost Jordan $ 1.6 billion from 2003-2006; the cost to Syria has been far greater because they were initially permitted to work, receive medical care, and put their children into public schools. Neither has received a major injection of international assistance to provide for refugees.
The main reason for Iraq's sorry situation is US miscalculation and ineptitude. Some thoughtful analysts recommend that Washington hand over the task of stabilising, restructuring, and rebuilding Iraq to the UN, a body which has successfully distanced itself from the US occupation the vast majority of Iraqis detest. The UN would have to wrest political control from the US, abandon its policy of ethno-sectarian divide and rule, and establish an international "stabilisation force."
This would initially have to include troops from the US but their numbers could be gradually reduced as forces from other countries were deployed. India, Ireland, and countries not involved in the occupation would be welcomed by Iraqis. The UN must also effect regime change by removing Shia and Kurdish politicians who have dominated the scene since the fall of the Baath in 2003. Their removal could be achieved by holding elections at the local and provincial levels and then for parliament.
Parties based on religion or ethnicity could be banned and clerics barred from political office. Shia and Kurdish militiamen would have to be dismissed from the police and armed forces or integrated into mixed formations after excluded Sunnis, Christians and secularists have been recruited.
Sectarian and ethnic cleansing would have to be reversed so the displaced could return to their homes and formerly mixed neighbourhoods re-established. The 2005 constitution would have to be redrafted and legislation adopted on the relationship of the centre to the provinces, the return of middle level Baathists to the army and civil service, the fair distribution of oil revenues, and the rights of women.
