President Pervez Musharraf's political rivals in Pakistan have finally named the Pakistan People’s Party’s (PPP) second-rung leader Syed Yousuf Raza Gilani as the nominee to form the country’s first truly coalition government. When Gilani assumes office on Tuesday, the coalition of parties arrayed against Musharraf will also signal the country’s return to a democratic polity. Questions will remain about the efficacy of the new the Gilani government as the late former premier Benazir Bhutto’s PPP and another former premier Nawaz Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N) have been bitter rivals all along, until the battle for political survival against Musharraf brought them together on a common platform. The viability of the Gilani-led coalition will depend on the longevity of the newfound solidarity between PML leader Sharif and PPP leader Asif Ali Zardari. Musharraf, their common rival, is still in the saddle as the country’s President. Though Sharif wants Musharraf eased out of the top position, it is not clear for sure if that also remains Zardari’s immediate political agenda.

The Musharraf factor will very well continue to determine the solidity of the PPP-PML alliance and the stability of the incoming Gilani dispensation. But equally, if not more significantly, the disposition of Musharraf’s successor army chief General Pervez Kiyani towards the new civilian government would be watched. Should Kiyani distance himself from Musharraf and thus, allow the civilian dispensation run administration without interference, then Musharraf could progressively lose his clout. Such a scenario may not really  stabilise the PPP-PML alliance. Gilani’s political challenges are, therefore, very obvious and being just a second-rung leader within his party doesn’t make these challenges any lighter.

But it is on the domestic terrorism and economic front that Gilani would be tested immediately. Both Zardari and Sharif have talked about adopting a different approach to the mounting problem of religious extremism and terrorism in the country. Now the time has come for them to demonstrate that policy and establish its effectiveness in dealing with the situation. While there is talk of relying more on political instruments to tackle terror, there is no doubt Gilani would require the support of the Kiyani-led army too. As for India, the Manmohan Singh Government has been waiting for almost a year to continue with the bilateral composite dialogue process that was stuck since last March when the Musharraf administration plunged into a major political crisis at home. Also Zardari’s recent pitch for stronger bilateral ties notwithstanding, the Kashmir hurdle augers well for resumption of the dialogue with India.