No party can think of forming the next government in Karnataka without our help,” was what JD(S) supremo H D Deve Gowda had proclaimed soon after the elections were announced, but even before the nominations had been filed. Roundly criticised by the BJP sympathisers and others for the “betrayal” which led to early polls, and deserted by his own long-term colleagues fed up with his “machinations,” a cornered Gowda had to remind everyone that his party could still play a decisive role in government formation in case of a hung Assembly.

The fulfilment of Deve Gowda’s “wish” or return to the 2004’s “nightmarish” verdict will depend to a great extent on the way the people of south Karnataka vote in the  first phase of polling which is being held today. The 11 districts in this phase (accounting for 89 seats), including Mysore, Mandya, Hassan, Chamarajnagar, Mandya, Tumkur, Kolar and Bangalore – which helped Gowda acquire the clout to dictate terms to the two national parties, Congress and the BJP last time – will more or less decide whether Gowda will return to being a “king-maker” or turn out to be a fringe player.

This is the hardcore Vokkaliga belt which gave JD(S) 36 out of its 58 seats in the last Assembly and put Gowda in the driver’s seat. It was not Vokkaligas alone who voted for JD(S); the social umbrella which Gowda had created had helped his party in gaining the support of Kurubas, Lingayats, OBCs and minorities as well.

But, this time around, many of the senior leaders like Siddaramaiah, H C Mahadevappa, P G R Sindhia, M P Prakash and C M Ibrahim who had helped the JD(S) put up credible performance in 2004 have drifted away and their absence will definitely hurt JD(S). In Mysore district alone, for instance, JD(S) had won eight of the 11 seats, but none of those legislators (barring D Venkatesh, who is not contesting) are with it now.

With Siddaramaiah’s entry into the Congress – which won just three out of the 16 seats in Mysore and Chamarajnagar last time – the party is hoping for major gains. But, in Tumkur and Mandya districts, ironically, JD(S) appears to be yielding ground to the BJP which was hardly a force to reckon with earlier in these parts. JD(S) may be able to retain hold over Hassan district, but here again, it is poised to lose two or three seats to its rivals.

After 20 months as chief minister, H D Kumaraswamy has apparently emerged as a “credible face” in the JD(S) and in fact, his acceptability is much better than that of his father. His simple approach, “village stays,” pro-poor initiatives like loan waiver, ban on arrack and lotteries have found admirers among rural voters and if JD(S) is still in the race, a large part of the credit should go to him.

But, what Kumaraswamy’s coalition with the BJP also did was to help the saffron party gain roots across the state and in southern Karnataka especially, they have done so at the cost of the JD(S). What will be the “cost” of that alliance will be known after the election results are out.

The Bangalore metropolitan region, whose importance has gone up enormously after the delimitation exercise increased its seat share from 25 to 36, could play a crucial role as to who captures Vidhana Soudha. Here, the fight is mainly between the Congress and the BJP and hence the stakes are obviously very high. They seem to have competed with each other in putting up “money bags” from realty sector as candidates in some of the constituencies, which could set an unhealthy trend in electoral politics.

The Election Commission has no doubt succeeded in putting an end to uglification of public places with election-related materials and also helped in saving a lot of unnecessary expenditure. One can travel for miles without seeing a single poster, banner or cut-out and it is difficult to discern that an election in on. Though curbs on defacement of public places is a welcome measure, the Commission’s stringent norms on the holding of even public meetings is not in the best interests of democracy.

This must be the first election where political parties have cut down public meetings to the barest minimum and the candidates have been forced to resort to door-to-door campaigning as the main avenue for reaching the prospective voters. This way, it is impossible to reach even 50 per cent of the voters within the limited time and it is a great handicap, especially for new candidates.

If the objective of such restrictions was to cut down on election-related expenditure, it is hardly being achieved.  Each candidate is supposed to spend not more than Rs 10 lakh and give an account of the expenditure after the elections. Everybody knows that it has been reduced to a farce and yet there is no easy solution to curb the menace. With the influx of “powerful money bags” in this elections in a big way, the political parties should wake up at least now and bring about genuine electoral reforms to restore the health of our democracy.