This year could be a make or break period for Iraq, a country torn apart by multiple conflicts. This is the assessment of a report issued on Thursday by the distinguished British think-tank, Chatham House, formerly known as the Royal Institute of International Affairs.
The 12 page document, written by Gareth Stansfield, a West Asia expert at Exeter University, says the Iraqi government is largely powerless and irrelevant in much of the country which has “fractured into regional power bases” involving “local sectarian, ethnic or tribal political groupings”.
He lists the civil wars and insurgencies as a “vicious Shia-Sunni civil war in Baghdad where the security institutions of the Iraqi government are involved”. There is also rampant criminal activity throughout the country.

Recommendation
While US and British forces should try to promote security without getting involved in local disputes, Mr Standfield recommends complementing military with political action on three fronts.
Sunnis should be encouraged to play a “meaningful” role in the political process, radical Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr should be recognised as a major player, and the Kurdish autonomous region should be given legitimacy.
He also says that the hydrocarbons law can be drafted to promote the common good rather than divide Iraqis. He says the four existing regions — Basra, the Sadr City area of Baghdad, the Sunni fundamentalist “Islamic State of Iraq” in the north and the Kurdish autonomous region should be recognised, at least temporarily, and encouraged to work together.