The Andhra Pradesh government is keeping its fingers crossed because the monsoon is something that cannot be predicted with certainty despite the strides technology has made. The government is hoping that the predictions of a delayed monsoon notwithstanding, the rains will be adequate and not push the administration into a whirl of emergencies all round.
Not that the state government is not prepared but an emergency of any kind always takes a heavy toll on the administration.
After a decade of recurring drought, the last two years gave the government a breather as the state received moderate rainfall.
Out of 23 districts in Andhra Pradesh, as many as 12 are drought- prone. Two of the lowest rainfall areas in the country, Anantapur and Mahbubnagar are in the state. Jaisalmer in Rajasthan has the lowest rainfall in the entire country.
The four semi-arid districts of Anantapur, Kadapa, Chittoor and Kurnool of the Rayalaseema region and the southern Telangana districts, Medak of Mahbubnagar, Nalgonda and Ranga Reddy are in the rain shadow region of the state.
Departments like Agriculture, Animal Husbandry, Women and Child Welfare have drawn up contingency plans to stand by those who are vulnerable when the need arises in the event of the failure of the monsoon.
Alternative crops have been identified, water needs estimated and sources identified, stocks of fodder for cattle built up and arrangements made to take care of pregnant women, lactating mothers and infants who are among the most vulnerable of groups.
The Rain Shadow Department has plans in place for cloud seeding to bring rain to the rain-starved areas in the rain shadow region.
Although this programme has been criticised by the opposition as a waste of precious resources, officials point out that experiments have proved successful in China and the US where they have been tried out close to 50 years.
Nearer home, it has yielded results in Karnataka and Maharashtra.
Cloud seeding – this is the use of silver iodide or other materials to increase the amount of precipitation from clouds. It is a planned weather modification.
According to officials who spoke on condition of anonymity, drought does not attract as much attention as say, a cyclone or a tsunami because it is a slow killer, advancing upon the people insidiously.
In fact, drought is not covered in the recently enacted Central government’s Disaster Management Act.
However, in Andhra Pradesh there is a convergence of policies to mitigate distress and drought is part of the disaster management portfolio. “There is a need for a paradigm shift in livelihoods in the drought-prone areas but it is not happening even in the forward looking state of Andhra Pradesh,” said another official.
However, as Ms Preeti Sudan, Commissioner of Disaster Management pointed out, safety nets have been created for vulnerable groups like aged pensioners, infants and school-going children through the ICDS and so on.
“No one goes hungry in our state because of the fantastic Public Distribution System,” said Ms Sudan. “The system does have strength. We have had no starvation deaths. Farmers’ suicides? They are due to debt,” she said.
