The Bush administration is developing ''concepts'' for cutting US combat forces in Iraq by up to half next year. According to senior administration officials involved in the internal debate over Iraq, the scenarios called for a reduction in troop levels to about 100,000 by the midst of next year's presidential election campaign. They also included a significant scaling back of President George W Bush's stated mission in January that the US military take back control of Baghdad and restive Anbar province.
Instead, the mission would focus on training Iraqi troops and fighting al Qaeda in Mesopotamia, while pulling US troops back from the fight against insurgents in Baghdad. One idea would be to cut the current 20 US combat brigades to about 10, to be completed between next spring and the end of 2008. There are now about 145,000 US troops in Iraq.
But the debate, which officials discussed on condition they not be identified, did not indicate Bush was bracing for an early end to the current troop increase of about 30,000 designed to combat insurgents and stave off all-out civil war.
The debate is expected to evolve over the next several months, the officials added.
Several officials said the hope was that a troop reduction would shift the campaign debate over Iraq from a time frame for a pullout to what long-term presence the United States should have there. Democrats in Congress have been pushing for setting deadlines to begin withdrawing US troops from the unpopular war.
Defence Secretary Robert Gates and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice were said to be pushing for the troop cuts as well as scaling back the mission next year, the newspaper said, as were some generals at the Pentagon who have long held doubts about the Iraqis' making real political headway via the troop increase.
The top US commanders in Iraq, Gen David Petraeus and Lt Gen Raymond Odierno, have not been involved in the discussions, the Times said. Along with other commanders, they have been clear about not speeding a pullback before January 2009 when Bush leaves office.
Odierno told the newspaper on Thursday that any US troop withdrawal would be ill-advised before December, at the earliest. At that point redeployments should occur only slowly, he added.
One administration official who has participated in the talks told the Times the plan ''stems from a recognition that the current level of forces aren't sustainable in Iraq, they aren't sustainable in the region, and they will be increasingly unsustainable here at home.''
Officials cautioned that while no firm plans had emerged, the proposals saw a much-reduced, but long-term U.S. presence in Iraq, centering on a few large bases.
