It appears that people in the rural areas are more interested in election than the people in cities( such as Tumkur and Tiptur) where people have lost interest in the election. According some of the politicians situation in rural areas will be all charged up just a day or two before the actual voting. But if the district is taken as one unit, people in the district have become disillusioned.

One of the important questions that emerges during the election is the political mood and wave in the district.

Though it appears that there is sympathetic wave towards BJP, one should not forget the results of the previous election where JD(S) won the majority seats in the district.

JD(S) managed to bag nine seats out of the total 13 in the district and thus Tumkur become the district which gave highest seats to JD(S) in the state. Congress’s Dr Parameshwara who contested from the Madhugiri reserved constituency managed to retain his seat followed by BJP’s Sogadu Shivanna and K S Kiran Kumar who had won from Tumkur city and Kallambella constituencies respectively.

But now in the changed scenario JD(S) has lost the hold in the district while the condition of Congress is no better. If an over all view is taken BJP appears to be in a comfortable position as there is a sympathetic wave towards it.

Tumkur city scenario

It is appears that Sogadu Shivanna who as continuously represented the constituency for three times has once again gained the plus points.  But that does mean it is a cake walk because people belonging to Thigala community are unhappy with the sitting MLA and some of the community members are actively involved in the campaign of the other candidates. JD(S) Raveesh or Janhangir Ravi can trouble Shivanna by garnering considerable votes. But if the Ravi wins the election it is no less than miracle.  The main competition is between Congress and BJP. But Congress has a weak point as it has fielded Rafeeq Ahmed Sheikh. Rafeeq is a entrant to the constituency who is from Davanagere. Bearing the fact that he is the son-in-law of the Congress leader and former MLA Shafi Ahmed  he doesn’t have any other advantage.

Even Shivanna is supposed to have said that he himself had not seen his opponent. Shivanna has got Rs 50 crore sanctioned for the city and has undertaken many development works in the city. Another added advantage for Shivanna is there is no candidate from the lingayat community as a result he is expected to get the votes of lingayats plus many backward castes.

Tumkur rural

In this constituency the tussle is between the three parties, Congress-Rudresh, BJP-Suresh Gowda and JD(S)-H Ningappa.  But here BJP may have to strive a lot has S P Muddahanume Gowda who was in Congress has left the party and joined JD(S) after the party refused to give him a ticket and is now supporting Ningappa.

Gubbi constituency

In the Gubbi the battle for the seat will be fought by BJP’s Mahadevaiah, JD(S)’s S R Srinivas and Congress’s Shivakumar. But who ever wins the seat the margin of their victory is said to be very low as all three are strong candidate. The constituency has large population of Gollas, Vokkaligas and Veerashaivas. It is first time that Congress has fielded a candidate belonging to Golla communityi.e Shivakumar. This might act in favour of the party. But if  the upper caste votes along with sympathy of the people works then Mahavedaiah might stand to gain from it. But Congress and JD(S) will surely give a neck to neck fight.

Chikkanayakanahalli

The situation is no different in this constituency. But there is phenomenal change after the delimitation. The lingayat votes have increased in the constituency. JD(S) B Sureshbabu, JD(U)’s Maadhuswamy and BJP district unit president K S Kiran Kumar will lock the horns for the seat. Congress’s Rajendra Kumar is a new entrant and may not poses a great threat.  If Sureshbabu is successful in garnering Kuruba community votes, to which he belongs his victory is definite, it is same with the BJP candidate. If the lingayat votes make it to the Kiran Kumar even his victory is certain. But if the voting pattern is divided anybody can win the election but with a low margin.

Tiptur

In the Tiptur taluk the fight is mainly between Congress and BJP, though JD(S) an BSP have fielded their candidate. Congressman Shadakshari, BJP’s B C Nagesh, JD(S)’s B Nanjamari are the prominent candidate. BSP’s Lingaraju is also in the fray. Since people of the taluk have a soft corner for the BJP, the party is expected to gain from this. But Shadakshari is in no mood to give up as he has already started a rigorous campaign.