A world with an increasing number of nuclear weapon states is not inevitable.
While the United States remains preoccupied with the war in Iraq, nuclear nightmares are fast becoming more realistic.
The potential risks are many, including a West Asia with multiple nuclear states, terrorists acquiring a nuclear weapon from insecure stockpiles and flaws in America’s own command and control procedures exposed by unauthorised B-52 flights with nuclear bombs. Current policies are not working. Drastic changes are needed.
A new, comprehensive strategy is needed — one that takes seriously the mission of preventing a nuclear 9/11, stops states from going nuclear and deters them from conducting a nuclear strike on America or assisting terrorists in acquiring the bomb.
As the possibility of a nuclear terrorist attack increases, America’s ability to counter that threat remains anaemic.
To reduce this risk, Americans advocate accelerating efforts to secure and eliminate bomb-making nuclear materials worldwide, to detect and interdict illicit shipments of such materials, and to develop nuclear forensic technologies that would enable them to hold states accountable if they knowingly assisted terrorists in acquiring or using nuclear weapons.
The US must mobilise the world to ensure that North Korea follows through on its commitment to dismantle its nuclear facilities and eliminate its nuclear weapons, and to head off an Iranian nuclear weapons capability.
A nuclear-armed Iran has the potential to trigger a proliferation chain reaction in West Asia, and a nuclear-armed North Korea could compel its neighbours to reconsider their nuclear options. To roll back these threats, the international community must be ready to apply increased financial and diplomatic pressure. At the same time, the US should be ready to offer the incentive of normalised relations.
A cohesive nuclear strategy should include lower force levels. For the foreseeable future, the US will have to maintain effective, reliable nuclear forces to deter adversaries and reassure friends, but deterrence and reassurance can be achieved at significantly lower force levels.
Moreover, America should develop a range of advanced conventional weapons and operational concepts that would give the president credible and technically suitable options for dealing with threats and would reduce and eventually eliminate any need to resort to nuclear weapons to respond to non-nuclear attacks. Reducing the salience of nuclear weapons would enable the Americans to build global support for the tough actions needed to stop terrorists and hostile regimes from obtaining nuclear weapons.
A world with an increasing number of nuclear weapon states is not inevitable. Neither is a nuclear attack by terrorists. Both can be avoided if their prevention becomes an overriding national priority complemented by strong US leadership.
