It is hardly new for Pakistan but the confrontation that is shaping up now is by its various dimensions something fearful and partly new. The new crisis began with General Pervez Musharraf who, as the Army Chief of Staff, imposed a state of emergency, suspended the Constitution and gave a Provisional Constitutional Order (PCO) alongwith drastic measures to control the freedom of the media, including press and a brutal crackdown on opposition followed.

Many thousands of lawyers and human rights activists and members of civil society have been picked up and the police is thrashing the gatherings, groups and rallies wherever they gather. The country is without free electronic media today except for the press, with thousands in jails.

The Opposition is supposedly fashioning a broad, angry alliance this time against the military domination of the country – and not simply against a specific dictator. The specific demands today are though: withdraw the proclamation of emergency, the PCO and all actions taken under these measures those curbing the freedom of the electronic media and press.

The country has to be taken back to the position it was on Nov 2. That includes reconstitution of the Supreme Court as it was on Nov 2; the purge of the judges for which the PCO was devised has to be undone. These are apparently irreconcilable positions between the Musharraf regime and the Opposition in Pakistan. This was inevitable and had to come. But the complications are tremendous.

To begin with, the United States is a direct participant in the political turmoil that is Pakistan politics today. It began as the patron and champion of Musharraf. Over the years, it became conscious of his inadequacies and indeed unsuitability for the task it had assigned to him as an indispensable ally in the war on Islamic terror. Therefore they eventually brokered a Musharraf-Benazir Bhutto deal under which the two would join forces in fighting Islamic terror together.

But Musharraf seems to have either backed out of the deal or wanted it to be delayed and implemented in a roundabout way, especially the sharing of power with Benazir to be after the upcoming elections. Meantime, Musharraf has imposed emergency and PCO alongwith the suppression of Opposition and total closure of the electronic media inside the country. That has created a new situation.

The US has now pitched in with a concrete demand that Musharraf take off his uniform on Nov 15 as he had pledged earlier and hold free general elections by January 2008. The kind of US involvement in Pakistan politics is not new, of course. But the shape it has taken – megaphone diplomacy inside Pakistan – is something to be wondered at. There is no inhibition in intervening in another country’s internal affairs. Perhaps they are not internal affairs any longer.

The US purposes in Pakistan, a needed ally, is to maintain stability of the country necessitated by its location. In the Americans’ view, without the Army, Pakistan cannot remain united and stable. All government changes in Pakistan have had some input from the US Ambassador. Insofar as Musharraf is concerned, he is totally US sponsored. His role is seen as crucially important in the Afghanistan war.

Pakistanis are wondering what is the American script: most think Americans are still interested in a coalition of Pakistan Army with PPP so that the “war against terror” can be prosecuted better. Others differ somewhat. But one fact is relevant here: the more Americans are seen as bolstering Musharraf regime, the more Islamic fundamentalists and extremists will grow and get a better reception for their ideas.

Another question is whether Musharraf is defying American wishes. There seems to be some discrepancy between the scripts of Musharraf and the Americans. Some fear that egged on by his ruling PML(Q) and his own personal hatred of Benazir and PPP, he may keep PPP out or kept in an insignificant position in the election results.

What is implied is that the election results would broadly be what the regime wants; it has honed techniques to produce the desired election results. Except for the 1970 election, Pakistan has seen no free elections since, despite five or six elections. For PPP, the critical question is what would be its share in the announced election results. No one believes that any free election can be held with Musharraf in charge. 

Backdrop is the rapid Talibanisation of NWFP and adjoining districts, before long Punjab too will be affected. In the NWFP many mini-states are emerging led by persons who are simultaneously warlords, narco dealers, Taliban and champions of an extra austere Islam. They also flaunt Pushtoon nationalism. Here is a heady brew, combining Islam with Pushtoon nationalism that cuts across the Durand Line and has some appeal in Sindh, Balochistan, NWFP and Afghanistan simultaneously.

The resonance of the extremist Islamic appeal is a matter of concern. The simple unlettered Pushtoons accept it implicitly. Even the security forces in the area, insofar as they are Pushtoons, have no heart in fighting other Pushtoons.

Secondly, there is much anger against Musharraf and indeed military domination, as such. The Opposition now opposes the military’s domination as such rather than merely undoing the Musharraf regime. Revive the pre-Nov 3 situation. The third thing to be noted is the strong reaction against open American interference. This is alienating those whom the US should be courting: the modern and moderate Muslims. Moreover, it is strengthening Taliban no end.

The Army is in open confrontation with the populace led by the intelligentsia. National cohesion has already been a casualty of too many Martial Laws because Army controlled regimes are seen as Punjab’s domination over small provinces that are ethnically distinct because not only is the Army largely Punjabi, bureaucracy, feudals, big business and industrialists too are Punjabis for the most part.

Punjab domination means extinction of ethnic self governance. This they are not prepared to accept. It is a basic polarisation that began in the very first years of Pakistan and it is still going strong. Regime talks of Taliban advance in Pakistan. But it is fighting all leaders of intelligentsia.
Whose friend is Musharraf?