French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner was in Beirut on Tuesday in a desperate bid to persuade feuding Lebanese lawmakers to agree on a consensus candidate to replace President Emile Lahoud who steps down on November 24.
Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri has on three occasions cancelled special assembly sessions where deputies were to choose a new president and there is concern that if they fail to reach an agreement ahead of a meeting scheduled for November 21, the country could split into two warring camps. 
In the absence of a consensus candidate, the US-backed parliamentary majority led by Saad Hariri could unilaterally elect a president or the current government headed by Fuad Siniora could assume presidential powers. The majority holds 68 of the 127 seats. But both steps would precipitate crises.
Illegal action
Either of these unilateral actions could be declared illegal by the opposition headed by Hizbollah. A quorum of two-thirds of the members of parliament is necessary to legitimise a session tasked with choosing the head of state.
Outgoing President Lahoud, who supports the opposition, has indicated that if a consensus figure is not chosen by the deadline he could decide to stay on in office, dismiss the current government and appoint an emergency cabinet under Army Chief Michel Suleiman. Lahoud says his aim would be to avert a third civil war.
Kouchner met Maronite Catholic Patriarch Cardinal Nasrallah Sfeir who has urged members of his community to support a consensus candidate. Kouchner expressed the concern of France, the former colonial power in Lebanon, over the country’s yearlong political deadlock, precipitated when Hizbollah pulled its ministers out of the cabinet and launched a boycott of parliament due to the refusal of the Siniora government to grant the opposition a veto on policy.
His mission was undercut by George W Bush who telephoned Siniora on Monday to express his support for the election of a president by the majority. Whenever the sides seem to be reaching an accord on a consensus candidate, Bush intervenes.
His backing for the weak government has encouraged it to refuse the appointment of consensus candidate because he would have to come to terms with Syria, the local power the US seeks to deprive of influence in Lebanon and the region.
Intervening US
Bush has taken such a strong line against Syria because of its alliance with Iran, which is engaged in a regional power struggle with the US. Unfortunately, Bush’s intervention could lead to the destabilisation of Lebanon, which has all too often been the victim of international rivalries.