The protests in Myanmar that began in September, consequent to steep increases in fuel prices, may have subsided in their intensity but that in no way means the simmering anger against continued military rule will wither away. The ensued crackdown had its impact in creating a temporary lull but small-scale demonstrations have been taking place intermittently.

What differentiates the current protests from the rest, especially the August 8, 1988 student-led movement, is that the most revered and influential section of the society, that is, the Buddhist clergy, has taken the lead this time around.

The protests are likely to be a recurring phenomenon, thanks to the spread of modern communication systems and greater awareness about enormous economic strides the rest of the neighbourhood has made in East Asia.

Shattered hopes
Though rated in the 50’s by the World Bank as having the biggest potential to emerge as a prosperous country, Myanmar today is one of the most impoverished, thanks to retrograde economic policies by the junta. Continued clergy’s belligerence may result in cracks to open in the military ranks, the last thing the rulers want. For these reasons, the military strongman Than Shwe has indicated to conditionally meet Aung San Suu Kyi, leader of the National League for Democracy and allow the interlocutors of the UN.

Although Suu Kyi has begun a dialogue with the military junta on possible political settlement, perhaps as one of the three key backers of the military, India, claiming to be the world’s biggest democracy, will be accused of complicity with the military rulers in its pursuit of certain economic and strategic interests if it remains a mute spectator to the developments there.

Whereas China has its own agenda and has already become an indispensable factor in Myanmar’s economic and security affairs, ASEAN's interests are more varied and less intense than either China’s or India’s, but it provides Myanmar’s ruling government with badly needed political legitimacy. There is, of course, no uniformity of opinion within ASEAN.

It is true that India’s interests have been vital and hence was compelled to initiate an engagement strategy in 1993 when the previous policy of support to democracy only complicated things. This policy has since evolved into a robust, multi-faceted policy to include political, strategic and economic aspects. Nonetheless, that in no way abdicates India’s responsibility.

Yet, no solution is viable without accommodating the military’s interests nor a forcible imposition of a system from outside is likely to work, notwithstanding Western exhortations about democracy.

Statutory framework
Given the reality that Myanmar is a multi-ethnic society and that most minorities have been waging separatist armed struggles for several decades and to its credit the military has managed to bring them under control, any roadmap of political transition and reforms should bear this in mind lest the country can slip back to political chaos it witnessed in the 60’s.

Since the military is strongly entrenched, in order to bring about changes but without subjecting the country to political volatility, it is useful to begin with the statutory framework that is in the final stages (after deliberating on it for more than 14 years).

There are provisions in the proposed Constitution, for instance, that provide reservation of one-fourth of the seats in both houses of parliament for the military and a president who actually cannot go against the wishes of the military. It is also possible that the military, like earlier Suharto in Indonesia, may float a political party of its own when the elections are announced. It is true that the military-supported Constitution falls far short of what can be called a democratic, but in the circumstances it may the best bet.

India can undertake quiet but intense behind-the-scenes diplomacy probably involving some select ASEAN countries and Japan to encourage the military rulers to announce an action plan of political reforms with the proposed Constitution as the basis. Once the stage is set for elections, it becomes imperative to involve the UN to oversee the process of actual transfer of power, including holding of elections.

(Dr G V C Naidu, Senior Fellow, Institute for Defence Studies & Analyses, New Delhi.)