The last thing that Iraq needs is another invasion into its territory and this is just what is likely to happen if Turkey goes ahead with its plans to cross its border with Kurdish-controlled Northern Iraq to deal with Kurdish militants of the Kurdish Workers Party (PKK) holed up in the rugged mountains along the border.

Turkey alleges that the PKK is responsible for a series of bombings in its cities. But an invasion is unlikely to solve the problem. The PKK is adept at guerrilla warfare and Turkey’s armed forces, which are trained in conventional war, are likely to get bogged down in an unending war in the mountains.

What is more, an invasion of Kurdish areas of Northern Iraq will inflame passions among Kurds in Turkey as well. Instead of restraining Turkey from marching off on this misadventure, the United States, which like Turkey has labelled the PKK as a terrorist organisation, is quietly backing the plan. The Pentagon has admitted to providing Ankara with “lots of intelligence” to facilitate the ‘taking out’ of PKK bases.

The Turkish agenda goes beyond simply ‘taking out’ the PKK. It extends to undermining growing Iraqi Kurdish autonomy as well. In May, three provinces of Iraqi Kurdistan which were handed security control by the US-led multinational forces, promptly raised the Kurdish flag instead of the Iraqi one.

A referendum in the oil-rich Kirkuk province on whether it wants to join the other three Iraqi Kurdish provinces is coming up and Turkey fears that if Kirkuk votes in favour of joining them, Kurdish demands for independence will receive a boost. Turkey fears that this will in turn encourage demands for a ‘Greater Kurdistan’, which has implications for Turkey.

Guns have never been able to snuff out Kurdish rebellion. Turkey is seriously miscalculating the situation if it believes that an invasion of Northern Iraq will quieten the Kurds. On the contrary, such an invasion – however limited the operations might be - will radicalise them.

An invasion has implications for Turkey’s democracy as well. A war on Kurdish-controlled Northern Iraq will rally support for Turkey’s army. The setback the military suffered in its battle against democratic forces some months ago will be reversed. The military which had been put in its place by the Turkish electorate will experience a revival in its fortunes. A war on Kurds might be popular in Turkey but it is a foolish step. The government needs to act with restraint.