Turkey has already reduced the flow of goods into Iraqi Kurdistan and threatens to cut  electricity to step up pressure on the government to oust the guerrillas. Analysts predict that as a next step, Turkey could mount air strikes and  shell guerrilla bases or stage a deep incursion to cut major roads and close the region’s two airports.
Falah Mustafa Bakir, head of foreign relations for the regional government (KRG), thinks Turkey will think carefully about carrying out a major incursion. “Turkey is part of NATO, Turkey wants to join the EU. Turkey thinks about the economy and the safety of its own people. Therefore, considering all these factors, there could be a big problem for Turkey if it decides to carry out an incursion. We believe there is a chance for Turkey to reconsider its position and to work for a peaceful solution.”

He said the KRG considers the guerrillas “an internal Turkish problem” which has resisted a military solution since 1984. “Therefore, our message to Turkey is that if you want to take a peaceful approach, we want to help you as much as we can...We are not part of this problem. We do not support (guerrilla) violence, we do not support military action. We do not think there is any excuse for the Turkish military to violate Iraq’s sovereignty..We want to have good relations with Turkey and the KRG has a firm policy of non-interference in the affairs of neighbouring countries.  We don’t want our areas to be used for aggression against our neighbours,” he said.

The foreign ministers’ conference set to meet in Istanbul on Saturday is expected to concentrate on the Iraq-Turkish issue. “Turkish military action threatens the stability of Iraq and puts at risk” gains made since 2003. “We are busy building a federal democratic Iraq, that’s our mission. We are focusing on stabilising the other regions of the country. The Kurdistan region is the only safe and secure part of the country right now and (if Turkey takes military action) Kurdistan will not remain safe and secure.”

One of the main reasons for tension between the KRG and Turkey is the referendum, due to be held during 2007. It will decide whether or not the oil-rich city of Kirkuk and other regions of northern Iraq will be annexed by the Kurdish region.

Ankara fears a referendum will lead to the creation of a “Greater Kurdistan” embracing southeastern Turkey. A majority of Iraqi Arabs also oppose the referendum which they see the precursor to the division of Iraq into three ethno-sectarian states. 

Although Turkey and some Iraqi Arab factions are prepared to use force to prevent the expansion of the Kurdish region, the KRG is not ready to back down. “The Kurdish leadership has shown utmost flexibility in order to find a peaceful, lasting solution for the disputed areas. We have been patient,” Mr Bakir asserted. But he said there has been delay carrying out a census and the referendum, due to a “lack of seriousness” in Baghdad. “The KRG is ready to recommend to the Kurdistan national assembly to extend the deadline.”

Such a political gesture could mollify the Turks temporarily if the KRG adopts such a gesture soon. But postponement could be a sign of weakness and undermine the credibility of the government, which is already facing widespread criticism for mismanagement and corruption.