Analysts said Musharraf’s main concern was to purge the Supreme Court of anti-government judges ahead of a ruling on the legality of his victory in a controversial October 6 presidential election.
Far from enhancing his fight against Islamists, who have regrouped in Pakistan’s tribal belt to plot attacks on the West, emergency rule will strengthen their cause and increase the likelihood of attacks, they added.
“Musharraf is riding a rudderless ship in a big and unpredictable political storm,” Rasul Baksh Rais, a political scientist at Lahore’s University of Management Sciences, told AFP.
“He may survive for a while but he will be swept away by the tide of anger, popular resentment and forces that wish to restore some degree of decency and normalcy to Pakistan,” he said.
Martial law
Analysts said the situation was closer to martial law than an emergency, with the suspension of many fundamental rights and added that the opposition would not tolerate such a situation for long.
“It is a second coup by Musharraf. We are heading for a very uncertain time because his coup will be challenged by political parties,” Hasan Askari, former head of political science at Punjab University, told AFP.
The key figures will be former premier Benazir Bhutto, who returned from exile on October 18 and has not ruled out a mooted power-sharing deal with Musharraf, and fundamentalist opposition leader Maulana Fazlur Rehman, who has criticised the president’s actions.
“This martial law will stay in place until either this parliament or the next parliament by a two-thirds majority indemnifies it. That is where the role of Bhutto and Fazlur Rehman becomes critical,” Najam Sethi, editor of the respected Daily Times newspaper said.The forces of Islamic militancy will also hit back against Musharraf, stepping up a wave of attacks that has killed more than 400 people since a government raid on the radical mosque in Islamabad in July, Rais said.
Impact on fight
“This move will impact the fight against militancy and terrorism. If you suppress popular democracy you only create opportunities for militancy and armed struggle,” he said.
“But analysts said the biggest danger is from within - the military that backed Musharraf’s original coup and has supported him for the past eight years in his US-backed campaign against the militants.
The 500,000-strong army has been demoralised not only by a series of attacks on security forces and abductions by militants, but also by bearing the “brunt of popular dissatisfaction with Musharraf’s regime.”