The world is shrinking. Literally for billions of homo sapiens, who are merrily feasting on the nature’s bounty without batting an eyelid about the disastrous consequences.

Last century witnessed almost four times decrease in per capita availability of land. The trend continues in the 21st century, according to the fourth edition of the Global Environment Outlook (GEO-4) by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). This says “by 2050 per capita availability of land will come down to 1.63 acres”. When compared with the 1900 figure of 7.91 acres of land, the shrinking earth becomes visible.

With the shrinkage, came environmental degradation with population as the driving force. The population pressure heightened trade and economic activities at the cost of air and water availability, and quality.
According to the UNEP, the world population is expected to rise to 9.2 billion by 2050 from 6.7 billion in 2007. The less developed regions’ population will rise to eight billion in 2050 from the existing level of 5.5 billion.

The GEO-4 says mere population growth is not the problem. Unequal distribution of resources and its access is.
North America consumes over 24 per cent of total global energy despite having only 5.1 per cent of the world’s population. In the last two decades, the gross domestic product is on the rise only for three regions — North America, Europe and the Asia Pacific, housing India and China. For the rest of the world, the GDP curve is flat.
The unsustainable quest for more and more comfort and luxury has put the entire globe at risk. Global warming is happening with 11 of the last 12 years (1995-2006) ranking among the warmest years since 1850. The average global temperature has gone up by 0.7 degrees and scientific studies say that the upper limit is two degrees.

Billions of tonnes of carbon dioxide is pumped into air daily. Frequency of natural hazards has increased in the last 20 years, claiming 1.5 million lives and affecting more than 200 millions. Between 1992 and 2001, floods were the most frequent natural disasters killing nearly 1,00,000 and affecting more than 1.2 billion in the world.
The most vulnerable are those living in the developing world. Regularly, they face the wrath of nature — increasing flood or drought, sea level rise and a deathly level of air pollution. In parts of Asia, including India, already there are some environmental refugees. Many more, in the southern Pacific, will become refugees in another few years.

The world has changed socially, economically and ecologically since 1987 when the World Commission on Environment and Development recognised the need for sustainable development for the first time. While North America hardly took any policy measure to change its wasteful way of living — many Americans do not even switch off lights at home when they leave for work — initiatives were taken in Europe.
But the most interesting lessons are emanating from Asia and the Pacific — home to 60 per cent of the world population — which are paying a high price for their progress, ignoring the environment. GEO-4 warns, “due to increase in consumption and associated wastes, there are serious challenges related to air quality, fresh water availability and a threat to food security”. Environmental and economic policies have not been integrated in the region.
Between 1990 and 2001, the region was able to reduce the number of people living on less than a dollar per day by 250 million, which is praiseworthy, undoubtedly. But at the same time, air pollution kills 5,00,000 people every year in this region and 665 million lack accesses to safe-water.

The growing energy needs and associated increase in fuel types have resulted in the intensification of urban air pollution and the serious degradation of air quality in many Asian cities. The pollution scenario has been further complicated by the region’s relatively poor energy-intensity and fuel-efficiency.

During the 1990s, the number of cars and two-wheelers increased annually by 10 per cent, spewing out loads of polluting gases. An affordable and reliable mass transport system could be the solution, though it is non-existent at the moment. But will it be acceptable to young Indians, who are driving on the fast lane?
The world is moving in two different directions to address some of these issues. While the USA and Australia prefer a technology-driven path to clean up the world, the rest of the world has committed to the Kyoto Protocol that envisages cutting down significant emissions by western nations, including the UK, France and Russia. India is a partner in both initiatives.

As the debate on what could be the preferred solution to make the world clean and green continues, the world meets again in Bali in December to kick start negotiations for global pollution control measures after 2012, when the Kyoto Protocol expires. One hopes that the Bali meeting shows a new dawn.