Islamabad is calm today. In fact, Islamabad is almost always calm. The city exists like a small capsule of greenery, broad avenues and relative prosperity in a desiccated, over-crowded and poor country.
Islamabad was calm during the bloodless coup in 1999 that brought General Pervez Musharraf to power. The first I knew of it was when all the televisions and mobile phones in the city suddenly went off. Six hours later the snow cleared and Musharraf, in combat fatigues, appeared on our screens. “For the good of the country ...” he started.
Behind the scenes, of course, things have been anything but calm in recent months. Frantic negotiations led to a deal with Benazir Bhutto that has been heavily criticised within her own Pakistan People’s Party. The deal, by which her parliamentarians would boycott the indirect presidential elections on Saturday but not resign outright if the president issued an effective amnesty for “politically motivated” corruption charges, ensured a veneer of international legitimacy for the vote.
What happens now? There are four deadlines coming up. The first is a Supreme Court judgement that may retrospectively invalidate Musharraf’s win. Such a decision may, western diplomats fear, provoke the imposition of martial law, but most analysts think the result will go the president’s way. The second is the return of Bhutto on October 18. The third is the moment when Musharraf stops being a general and cedes his position as head of the army to an anointed successor. The fourth are legislative elections probably to be held in January. All of these variables make predicting what is likely to happen here very difficult. But I do not think there are likely to be very major changes in the near future. What is unlikely to happen is that Pakistan’s leaders will suddenly start to focus seriously on the real issues underpinning the country’s long-term underdevelopment. Like most military regimes, Musharraf’s administration has been good at building roads but has devoted small amounts of money to schooling. Though productive dialogue with India is likely to continue - it has been largely stalled because of the distraction of the politicking of the last months - and though there will be a lot of talk about tackling the rampant religious extremism, I don’t think anyone is likely to really start to make the radical cultural changes.
There is a tendency to see Pakistan as teetering on the edge of implosion. The problems are indeed many and complex but any time spent in the country - even when you venture outside Islamabad - makes it clear that Pakistan is not going to collapse in the near future. As they have done for decades, the conflict of the various interests, all of which are well entrenched, ensures a paradoxical and chaotic stability. For the moment anyway, Islamabad will remain calm.
The Guardian
