Kyrgyzstan’s capital Bishkek hosted the 7th Annual Summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) in August 2007. Unlike the Astana Summit of 2006 that was very critical of US presence, this year's Summit highlighted the commitment among its members to cooperate in energy and security issues. 

Indeed, the two issues were at the centre of the Bishkek summit. Russian President Vladimir Putin's call for creation of an “energy club” within SCO will not be possible without Turkmenistan, which is one of the major natural gas producers in Central Asia. Turkmenistan’s participation as a guest in the Summit points towards a more concrete cooperation in the energy sector among the SCO members in future.

The beginning

Since its inception as the Shanghai 5 in 1996 with Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan as members, the Organisation has come a long way. It became the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation with Uzbekistan joining it in 2001. Diversifying the membership, Mongolia was inducted as an Observer in 2004 while India, Pakistan and Iran became observers in 2005.

A look at the present scenario in the region suggests that both Russia and China will continue to be powers to reckon with. With countries like Russia and China as members, the west, particularly the US, will continue to be sceptical about it. Though the recent Summit was not very vehement about the US evacuating the Manas airbase in Kyrgyzstan, Russia and China are likely to continue to use the  SCO as an instrument to keep the US at bay in the region.

Handling the external players, especially the big three (China, US and Russia), depends largely on the Central Asian Republic (CARs). All these external players have their own stakes to preserve their stronghold in the region. The recent developments clearly indicate that the CARs want to make the best use of all these external powers to promote their own interests. This is evident from the behaviour of countries like Turkmenistan – which has cut separate energy deals with Russia, China and the US – and Kyrgyzstan – which isn’t too vocal about ousting the US  military from the Manas base.

Given the complex power politics in the region, the inclusion of India as a SCO  member  is unlikely in the near future.  Iran’s membership would further isolate the group from the US. But given its gas reserves and its emergence from self-proclaimed “positive neutrality”, Turkmenistan appears like a strong candidate for membership than any of the extra-regional observers.

For India, economic cooperation with the CARs is far more beneficial than any strategic calculations at this juncture. With players like the US, Russia and China already involved in the region, India would benefit from playing safe, and not entangle itself in any strategic manoeuvring. In fact, India was the only observer country to be represented by Petroleum Minister Murli Deora in the August 2007 Summit. 

The future

How will the SCO handle the power game in its backyard especially when three strong external players are jockeying for access to the region's rich natural resources? Compared to other regional organisations like ASEAN, the SCO is still in a nascent stage both in terms of number of years of its existence and in terms of financial capability. These newly independent republics have their own share of domestic problems, and tensions with each other. Time alone will show how successful  the SCO has proved in the region.

But for now as a newly formed entity in a volatile region, the SCO has made considerable progress. The Bishkek Summit is clearly a pointer that the SCO will continue to play a much more significant role in the years to come and is consolidating its presence in the region. 

(The writer is Researcher, Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi.)