General Pervez Musharraf’s landslide victory in Pakistan’s presidential election on October 6, in fact, exposes his many weaknesses. Firstly it was preceded by resignations of members of the main Opposition parties from the national and provincial assembly which comprised the electoral college and boycotted by his potential ally Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) members. Secondly the election is subject to the final verdict of the Supreme Court. Thirdly the election has been greeted by mass protests in the country.

Musharraf owes his continuation in power mainly on US support for his role as a “strategic ally” in its war against terror, which had its origins in Afghanistan. There were two main premises of US policy in Pakistan. First, terrorism can be combated with armed force alone. Second moderate and liberal Muslims should be mobilised to isolate them from the influence of Islamic extremists. General Musharraf who was the military chief and claimed to be a moderate, was considered an ideal person to play both these roles. His limitations on both the counts have by now been exposed.

The military not only failed to contain terrorism within the borders of Afghanistan but also could not prevent it from spreading to adjoining areas of Pakistan among its  frontier province, Baloachistan, Wazirstan and the tribal belt.

Musharraf also lost support of the liberal Muslims when be dismissed Chief Justice of the Supreme Court, Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhary. The widespread protests against this action led by the legal community and the civil society forced Musharraf to revoke his decision and this demonstrated the strength of liberal Muslims. Only the Muhajir community in Karachi showed a face of resistance against these protests.

The Army, which was Musharrarf’s main source of strength, mainly comprises Punjabis and Pushtoons. Both communities were alienated from him, Punjabis, particularly after Justice Choudhary’s dismissal and Pushtoons on account of repression they faced by the army in pursuing terrorists among them. That forced Musharraf to fall back upon his own community of Muhajirs who are numerically a smaller community.

It was amidst such a developing vacuum that former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharief thought it fit to jump in and return to Pakistan and try to symbolise the discontent of his countrymen. His broad alliance includes Muttihida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA), a religious outfit. Whether he should have preferred jail over exile in Saudi hospitably is a matter of strategy of which he must have considered the pros and cons. And whenever he decides to return and face the wrath of Musharraf, supposing he still remains in power then, he is unlikely to have lost all the popularity he has earned.

The US preferrs an alliance between Benazir Bhutto and Musharraf to strengthen the moderate forces in Pakistan. After their talks, she distanced her party from Nawaz Sharief. She demanded that the General shed his army uniform as a face saving device before sharing power with him. Though he was willing to get the law banning a third term for Prime Ministers to enable her assume that office, he agreed to shed his uniform only after the election to presidency.

To become an ally of Musharraf under these circumstances would have reduced her popularity further. Her decision to land in Karachi on October 18 again shows that she wants a safe landing. In other words, she is banking on the support of Sindhis and Muhajirs, who have moved closer to each other due to recent developments.

The alliance between these two communities would be further strengthened if a power sharing agreement between her and Musharraf works.

Firstly it must be realised that a single party or a single alliance of parties cannot satisfy all aspirations of all the people. A multi-party system can do it better and also provide democratic channels of discontent. Secondly moderate and extremist forms of discontent that we are witnessing in Pakistan are symptoms and not the cause. Discontent can take moderate or extremist form depending on which outlet is available to the people. The real need is, therefore, to go to the root cause of discontent.

The root cause of discontent in Pakistan to my mind is the present unitary form of government. If the Pushtoon and Balochi ethnic urges had been recognised by granting them some sort of autonomy, they might not have resorted to terrorism. A federal Pakistan where all provices have adequate autonomy and appropriate institutional arrangements are provided to each ethnic group including Muhajirs, Saraikis and tribal communities, it might pave the path towards a democratic and liberal Pakistan as also ensure its integrity. Let leaders of Pakistan and its friends ponder over this hypothesis and work out its implications.