India neither has cordial nor hostile relations with Myanmar but only neutral ties with its neighbour even after 60 years of nationhood.
Clearly India lacks a coherent foreign policy towards Myanmar considering its political and economic diplomacy has not taken off with its neighbour. New Delhi has adopted a reactive policy towards Myanmar rather than a proactive one. New Delhi only reacts to Beijing’s moves in Myanmar rather than undertake independent initiatives there. Evidently India cannot afford to compete with China which has effectively entrenched itself in Myanmar across political, military and economic spheres.
India cannot afford to ignore developments in Myanmar where its military junta has brutally suppressed people’s protests triggered by a fuel price hike in August. In response New Delhi has stated that democracy is an internal matter not to displease the military regime. From an Indian perspective should New Delhi support the pro-democracy forces in Myanmar or engage the military regime is the issue?
Look East
India engaged the Generals since 1992 during the P V Narasimha Rao regime. The compulsions were three fold: to offset Chinese influence, check insurgency, drug trafficking and smuggling in India’s northeastern region and lastly the “Look East” policy to promote trade ties with South East Asian nations using Myanmar for overland access as a natural bridge.
India shares a 1,653 kms long contiguous border – along its four states of Manipur, Mizoram, Nagaland and Arunachal Pradesh – with Myanmar. Three of these northeastern states are aflame with insurgency and therefore Myanmar assumes importance in Indian national security and foreign policy. India extended its National Highway 37 into Myanmar to promote border trade with that country. This also helps to tackle the insurgency since the insurgents sought sanctuary in Myanmar to escape Indian security forces. Over the years India-Myanmar relations have become synonymous with cross-border insurgency, narcotics and border trade.
An important irritant in India-Myanmar relations is that a small group of exiled Myanmar journalists are allowed to operate at New Delhi. They founded Mizzima News in August 1998 to promote awareness about the situation in Burma and facilitate democracy and freedom of expression in Burma by improving the flow of information in and out of the country. Today Mizzima News has its head office in New Delhi, besides a news bureau in Thailand, along with 30 staffers, including Burmese and foreign journalists, in Bangladesh, Burma, China, India and Thailand. For the military junta in Yangon which is used to chaining information this free flow of information proves irksome.
For instance, the Indian ministries of power and external affairs which deal with Myanmar lack the required synergy which resulted in a loss of the gas contract to China only a few months ago.
Surprise decision
India was surprised when the gas located in Myanmar near the Bay of Bengal was sold to China for transportation by pipeline to Yunnan. India assumed that the proximity of these reserves to its territory and the fact that Gas Authority of India Limited partly owned them would ensure that New Delhi bagged the contract.
Myanmar in the mid 90’s wanted to invite the Indian automobile major Maruti Udyog Ltd (MUL) to set up service centers in their country. However MUL was keen only on showroom sales of new cars rather than on secondary sales of spares which would accrue from service centers. Eventually Suzuki seized the opportunity and established a strong presence there. This speaks volumes of economic diplomacy towards Myanmar.
India needs to overtly engage the military junta in Myanmar and covertly cultivate contact with pro-democracy forces in the country. Whenever dictatorship in Yangon gives way to democracy in the years to come then India would not be at a loss. This two-pronged policy will yield results both in the short term and long term from an Indian national security and foreign policy perspective.