Two bomb blasts, ravaged a grand welcoming procession being led by Benazir Bhutto, the charismatic leader of Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), who returned after eight years self-exile on October 18. The blasts targetted Benazir and her entourage of PPP leaders, which has jolted the whole of Pakistan.

Who did it and what is its significance? Benazir’s husband in Dubai accused the government itself, which had been frantically asking Benazir not to come now. President Pervez Musharraf and his ministers wanted to fix the January elections first. This view can be attributed to the knee jerk reaction of Opposition politicians.

But most people regard it as the work of Islamic militants referred to as Taliban and al-Qaeda, who frequently resort to  suicide bombings, who cannot be regarded as an organised force under a single leadership and implementing a single plan. It is a conglomeration of innumerable groups or militias organised by whoever has enough funds to hire, say a hundred people to do his bidding can set up business as the warlord or the Amir or whatever title he might use for his mini Islamic-state that may sometimes be no more than a village or two. All these are dubbed works of Taliban, many of them are to be found outside the Tribal Areas of NWFP, trying to tyrannise and terrorise others in the settled areas of the Frontier province and now even parts of Punjab, particularly Rawalpindi-Islamabad after the Lal Masjid incident in July. Whether or not this particular incident in Karachi was caused by Islamic extremists, it has to be seen in the context of what is happening. Anyway, Pakistan politics is no stranger to violence.

Two whole civil wars now underway, each portentous. One is low-intensity guerrilla warfare in the widespread Baloch areas of Balochistan. The other war is raging in NWFP’s tribal areas and extending to the Pushtoon belt in Balochistan; all these areas are infested by numerous extremist groups, each with a militia of its own, the guerrillas fighting the state on tribal and local basis.

These Pushtoon tribes sport a version of Islam, which has the foundation of Sunni Hanafi fiqah of the Deobandi maslak. But on that foundation other beliefs and ideas have been grafted that have come from Saudi Arabia’s Salafi and Wahabi traditions plus the new pan-Arab anti-American sentiment due to US War on Terror that is perceived as America fighting Islam and Muslims.

These many autonomous groups is a prescription for a many-sided but disorganised warfare of what amounts to Pushtoon tribes war against the state of Pakistan. Under the influence of American advice, Pakistan has pursued a purely military strategy, alienating most tribes and Pushtoons in general. Indeed the indignation against the Americans and Islamabad’s policies is far more widespread.

Americans are bewildered and angry. They have poured treasure into Pakistan and feel frustrated that it is not doing what they could not do themselves. They have been piling up pressure on Musharraf “to do more”. One form of American pressure is the deal between Musharraf and Benazir. The Americans think that if these two reconcile and cooperate in running Islamabad, the War against Terror can be prosecuted much better.
Benazir has convinced the Americans that she is the answer to all their prayers. She is a Muslim, moderate, semi-secular politician determined to fight Islamic extremism and strengthen democracy. It seems to be a better way of fighting Islamic extremism by promoting democratic politics. The Americans have heavily leaned on Musharraf to allow Benazir in. Musharraf has his own difficulties.

But thanks to American pressure Musharraf is running a democracy of a kind that includes a political party he manufactured and to victory in an election that few saw as free. These nobodies have sustained Musharraf for five years and want their share of the pie. If his deal with Benazir works, these plutocrats would be eclipsed by Benazir’s charisma that will more or less absorb the King’s party. They were therefore against her being allowed in. But now that she has come in and has put up a grand show in Karachi, in which the PPP claims that two to three million people welcomed her. Whatever the numbers, she has registered a strong presence.

How things will develop from now is the question. Benazir has arrived, backed by American prestige against the wishes of both Musharraf and his cronies. But her mandate is to strengthen Musharraf’s regime in the War against Terror. It is uncertain whether she would actually strengthen Musharraf and America. She is totally unacceptable to Islamic extremists or even moderate religious types: first, she is a woman politician. Secondly, she believes in American-style moderation and modernism. Thirdly she carries the baggage of 40 years history of most religiously-oriented parties, who were aligned against the PPP. While her semi-secular and moderate credentials are unmistakable, her effectiveness on both sides of the divide — government and Islamic militants — is uncertain.

As for the question of who bombed Benazir’s procession, police say that Islamic militants from tribal badlands had arrived here for more suicide bombings. Karachi is a place where the largest number of Pushtoons live, more than Peshawar, Kabul or Kandhar. If more suicide bombing are to take place in Karachi, the ability of the authorities to find the actual militants would be slimmer here than in the Frontier areas in which villages are more open about who comes or goes.