After eight long years of self-exile, Benazir Bhutto landed in Pakistan with a “big bang”. Interestingly, neither the rapturous welcome given to her by the party faithful, nor the twin bomb blasts that devastated her welcome party, was unexpected. If anything, the scale of both the reception and the blasts was very well-planned and designed for maximum impact. While the massive turnout of PPP jiyalas was a clear show of strength, aimed at sending a message to Benazir’s political opponents and detractors that her ascent to power was now unstoppable, the bomb blasts were aimed at nullifying whatever political gains her supporters hoped to achieve in welcoming Benazir back to Pakistan.

From the reports, it appears that the blasts that targeted Benazir’s welcome party were not aimed so much at killing her. Instead, they were aimed at scaring her and her supporters. Had the bombers wanted to kill Benazir, the explosions would have taken place when she was standing on the roof of the truck, waving out to her supporters. But the attack took place as soon as she was safe inside the modified truck. What is more, if the bombers wanted to kill Benazir, then they would have waited and watched her and struck at a time when she would have no chance of escaping. This means that they would have struck some days and weeks ahead when the election campaign was in full-swing and security cover around Benazir would have a lot of holes.
This is not to deny the possibility that the attack was carried out by radical Islamic groups or jihadis. It is entirely possible that these groups did carry out the attack. The fact that only the jihadis have trained suicide bombers in their ranks means that it was most probably a couple of these trained, motivated, brain-washed suicide bombers who undertook these attacks. But more than who carried out the attack, the real question is who directed these attacks.

Was it the jihadis (Baitullah Mehsud’s Pakistani Taliban) fighting against the Pakistan army in the Pashtun tribal belt and who are engaged in fighting the NATO forces in Afghanistan? But on the very day she returned, these jihadis denied issuing any threat against Benazir. Was it renegade elements within the Pakistani security services apparatus (ISI and other intelligence agencies), who directed these attacks? Benazir had already expressed her apprehension of being attacked by retired or serving officials, who are opposed to her return to Pakistan’s political centrestage. For these elements, who have close links with radical Islamic groups, it is not difficult to mount such attacks.

There is also the very real possibility of political elements within the current regime, who could have planned the attacks. Benazir’s deal with Gen Musharraf has rattled his current political allies, especially the ruling Pakistan Muslim League (PML). The PML leadership is seeing its political demise on the horizon because of the Benazir-Musharraf deal. They know that if Benazir is allowed to campaign openly, their chances of even getting enough seats to hold the balance of power in the next parliament will be doubtful. Surely, anything that forces Benazir to restrict her movements and prevents her from carrying out a high-octane election campaign would be more than welcome for the PML politicians.

Some observers are speculating that it was probably the Muttahida-Quami Movement (MQM), which controls Karachi, which could have carried out this attack. But the MQM really has no direct conflict with the PPP, especially since their core constituencies don’t overlap. The MQM also is not averse to an alliance with the PPP on the issue of combating radical Islamists. No doubt, the MQM and PPP will find it difficult to successfully run a coalition in Sindh, but this is hardly any reason for them to target Benazir. Most of all, the MQM leadership, which is based in London, would be very chary of doing something that targets someone, who is the favourite of both the British and the Americans.

Then there is Gen Musharraf. Despite being forced into a deal with Benazir, he has no love lost for her. He would certainly not shed too many tears if Benazir is forced out from the scene. Nor for that matter would he be averse to seeing Benazir go into a shell and refrain from mounting a political campaign that can shake up his political gameplan. Some people believe that just as Gen Musharraf used the MQM to bring Karachi to a standstill, when the then suspended chief justice visited the city, he could have used some rogue elements to scare Benazir and her supporters.

Adding to the suspicion about Gen Musharraf is the fact that he was advising Benazir to postpone her return to Pakistan until the uncertain political and security situation cleared up. Cynics also say that with the security situation in Pakistan going from bad to worse, Musharraf will find justification for postponing elections, imposing emergency and even declaring martial law. In spite of all these factors, it is highly unlikely that Musharraf was behind such a heinous attack. If anything, if the situation in the country spirals out of control, the person who has most to lose is Gen Musharraf.

So, while the jury is still out on who was behind these attacks, the coming days and weeks will reveal whether Benazir and her party are cowed down by this attack or will they carry on regardless? On this will depend the future of the PPP as well as the future course of Pakistani politics.