The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) envisages a 75 fold increase in nuclear power in India within the next 45 years, despite the uncertain future of the Indo-US nuclear deal.

“India plans a 75-fold increase in nuclear power by 2052, to enable it to contribute to 26 per cent of the electricity supply,” says a new IAEA report. At the moment, nuclear energy contributes to three per cent of India’s total electricity.

The target, says the IAEA report, is perfectly within reach. A 75-fold increase works out to an average annual rise of 9.4 per cent, almost the same as average global nuclear growth from 1970 through 2004.  As a first step, the Department of Atomic Energy proposes an eight fold increase in nuclear power by 2022.

Though the data for the report has been provided by the DAE, the IAEA report did not clarify how the DAE could come across adequate uranium fuel at least for the first part of its projected future growth. At the end of 2006, seven of the world’s 29 reactors under construction were in India.

At the moment, India has 17 operational nuclear power plants with a total installed capacity of 4120 MW. The seven under construction will have an installed capacity of 2660 MW.

But at least four of the 17 operational reactors — two in Narora and two in Rawatbhatta — are shut down for maintenance work. The closure gives the Nuclear Power Corporation of India (NPCIL) much needed breathing space to tide over the present uranium crisis.

Two more reactors – the recently commissioned third unit at Kaiga and one unit at Kalpakkam – are also facing closure for want of uranium. The remaining 12 plants which have an established 95 per cent capacity, are running at 50-70 per cent level, taking the average  nuclear power production in the country to less than 50 per cent. The fuel mismatch is affecting the NPCIL performance.

According to the IAEA report, the present phase of nuclear power plant expansion is centred in Asia, as 15 of the 29 reactors units under construction at the end of 2006 are located in the continent. Twenty six of the last 36 operational reactors were in Asia.
Nuclear energy is expanding rapidly in China as well. China, with  four reactors under construction, plans a nearly five-fold expansion by just 2020.