Can the country achieve the power capacity addition target of 78,577 MW set for the 11th Five Year Plan period? This is the question agitating the minds of policy makers as well as experts in the energy sector.

Even though serious efforts are underway to reach the target, power experts seem to be pessimistic about reaching it for several reasons. Already there are reports on suggestions by the Planning Commission to lower the target to 60,000 MW to make it more realistic.

Of the 78,577 MW planned, thermal power would contribute 58,644 MW, accounting for 75 per cent, while hydro electric power would provide 16,533 MW (21 per cent) and nuclear power is expected to put in 3,380 MWe (four per cent).

For the 11th Plan, Karnataka has set an ambitious capacity addition of 8,500 MW. While the newly created Power Company of Karnataka Limited has prepared a plan for massive addition of 5,500 MW to the state’s power grid, the state-owned Karnataka Power Corporation (KPCL) plans to add about 3,000 MW.

Power experts are also raising doubts about achieving even the lowered target of 60,000 MW, since a large number of projects are still at the construction or planning stage.

Moreover, going by the current half-year performance, reaching the target seems a Herculean task each year. Power capacity addition in the first half of 2007 (April to September) is said to be less than a third of the targeted 16,788 MW. In view of this failure, there is a move to revise the target to 14,000 MW.

The targets set for different years are: 7,272 MW (2008-09), 15,198 MW (09-10), 16,970 MW (10-11), and 22, 372MW (11-12).

The Ultra Mega Power Projects (UMPPs) are expected to play a pivotal role in fulfiling the country’s power addition target. Of the seven UMPPs planned to be commissioned during the Eleventh Plan, bids have been finalised for only two projects — Mundra in Gujarat and Sasan in Madhya Pradesh. There is some progress in the Krishnapattinm project in Andhra Pradesh also.

But the Tadari project in Karnataka and the Sindu Durga Project in coastal Maharashtra have not taken off the ground due to stiff opposition from local environmental groups. As far as Tadri is concerned, following the delay, the Centre has already made it clear that it is seriously thinking of shifting the project from the proposed location.

One of the major difficulties in commissioning the power projects as per schedule is the delay in supply of main machinery such as boiler, turbine and generator by the public sector Bharat Heavy Electricals Limited (BHEL). As BHEL is already overburdened with orders, commissioning of power projects will inevitably get delayed.

Now the National Thermal Power Corporation and Larsen & Toubro are said to be seriously thinking of setting up boiler-turbine-generator manufacturing units. “But it will take at least two-three years to commission the plants”, Muralidhar Rao, director, technical, KPCL said.

Similarly, there are only few agencies handling coal and cooling towers in the country. “All these agencies are also overburdened with orders. As all companies are vying with each other in setting up the projects before schedule, there is a great demand for these agencies”, Rao observed. Further the power sector is also said to be facing a shortage of skilled manpower as well as civil contractors.

However, one bright spot in this dismal scenario is that nuclear power and renewable energy is looking up. The country currently has 16 reactors in operation, with a total capacity of 3,577 mw, providing about three per cent of the nation’s electric generation capacity. Another seven reactors with a total capacity of 3,000 mw are now under construction, and there are proposals for 24 more, which would add 13,160 MW in total.

As for renewable energy, the installed capacity in India is about 10,406.69 MW as on March 31. This is about eight per cent of the total installed capacity in the country. The Union government has set a target to achieve at least 10 per cent of the addition of capacity by the end of the 12th Five Year Plan from renewable energy sources.